Day: 13 October 2025

The annual World Bank and IMF meetings through the week will garner attention, with their outlooks released on Tuesday. We also have key Wall Street bank earnings reporting. Crucial China and US inflation data will also be scrutinised this week. 

US bond markets are shut this morning for Columbus Day. Germany’s CPI and ZEW expectations will be of interest on Tuesday, followed by UK jobless claims and unemployment figures. China’s CPI and PPI figures, Eurozone industrial production, US inflation, and the Empire Manufacturing print will keep markets busy on Wednesday. The Fed’s Beige Book could also be key given the lack of other major data amid the government shutdown. UK industrial production and US business inventories, retail sales, PPI, and initial jobless claims are all due on Thursday. Eurozone CPI and US housing starts and industrial production will conclude the week. 

Central bank chatter includes the Fed’s Paulson and BoE’s Mann and Greene. The Fed’s Chair Powell and Collins speak on Tuesday. The ECB’s Rehn, Galhau, and the BoE’s Ramsden appear on Wednesday. The ECB’s Lagarde speaks at the IMF annual meeting, while counterpart Lane, and the Fed’s Miran and BoE’s Mann comment at the IIF event on Thursday. The BoE’s Breeden and Greene will speak at the IMF and World Bank meetings, and we will also hear from the Fed’s Musalem, ECB’s Rehn, and BoE’s Pill at separate events. 

China trade data surprised to the upside in September, with exports rising 8.3%yoy while imports rose 7.4%yoy. This data arrives as US-China trade tensions reemerge, shifting from broad tariffs to targeted regulatory actions, focusing on areas like China’s rare earth export restrictions and US threats of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports from November 1st, or “sooner”. For Asian economies, this creates both economic risks and opportunities for supply chain diversification.  

Last week, markets had limited key US data to digest given the prolonged government shutdown. Of note was the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment data, which is forecast to ease marginally in October. The main focus was therefore the tariff escalation, which, coupled with the concerns of the ongoing shutdown and subsequent layoffs, resulted in a spike in the VIX Index. Given the risk-off tone, the S&P Index fell 2.43% last week, while the 10-year UST rallied 9bps over the week, to close at 4.03%. The US dollar gained 1.28% over the week, while Brent crude fell 1.79% to $62.73pb.  

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