Jean Boivin – Head of BlackRock Investment Institute together with Wei Li – Global Chief Investment strategist, Roelof Salomons – Chief Investment Strategist for the Netherlands and Bruno Rovelli
Chief Investment Strategist for Italy all forming part of the BlackRock Investment Institute share their insights on global economy, markets and geopolitics. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.
Key Points
Data resumes : European equities had a flash of outperformance over the U.S. this year and we see bright spots, but the region needs structural reforms to outshine the U.S.
Market backdrop : The S&P 500 dropped 2% on the week on a pullback in U.S. tech stocks and is down 5% from all-time highs. U.S. 10-year bond yields fell near 4.00%.
Week ahead : Delayed U.S. economic data is slowly emerging. Both October and November jobs data will come Dec. 16. – although the November data will be noisy.
European equities outperformed the U.S. earlier this year but have since retraced those gains, even though October surveys of business activity reached the highest level since May 2023. What’s needed to ignite an investment renaissance? We think more business-friendly policies and deeper capital markets are required for a broad overweight to European stocks. We like financials, utilities and healthcare, and eye defense, industrials and AI-related opportunities longer term.
European equities have long lagged U.S. stocks since the global financial crisis, with structural challenges including an aging population dragging on their relative performance after topping the U.S. in the 2000s. A burst of European share gains early this year – Q1 was the strongest against the U.S. since 2015, MSCI data show – raised hopes Europe’s fortunes could soon change. Euro area economic activity has also proved resilient: composite PMI in October hit a 2-1/2 year high. Yet this bout of outperformance proved short-lived. Europe’s long underperformance means valuations of European stocks also lag: every regional sector trades at a discount to its U.S. equivalent. See the chart. What would it take for Europe to take a sustained lead? Reforms addressing long-held challenges, creating a more business-friendly environment and deepening its capital markets, in our view.
More business-friendly policies could boost the corporate sector’s return on capital. Market fragmentation limits the ability of European companies to scale across the continent – a 2019 European Commission study estimated that trade frictions shave about 10% off potential GDP – as does the region’s interventionist regulatory approach. Removing internal barriers and loosening regulations could improve returns. Such reforms take time, but we see signs of progress: 11% of the reforms recommended in former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s 2024 report have been fully implemented, an EPIC report shows. Another potential boost? A more flexible fiscal framework. 2024 reforms allow governments to extend fiscal adjustment plans if tied to structural reforms, so fiscal policy can act as a stimulus, not a brake. Some countries with room to borrow more – such as Germany’s launch of a €500 billion infrastructure fund earlier this year – are also stepping up.
Deeper capital markets
We also think Europe must deepen its capital markets to help lower the cost of capital. Progress can also be made on the Savings and Investment Union, which aims to make Europe a more attractive destination to invest and channel more European household savings into productive investments. European households keep about a third of financial assets in cash and deposits, twice that of the U.S., per Eurostat and Federal Reserve data. The key is turning savers into investors to help develop capital markets, in our view. That could create a positive feedback loop – greater wealth could spur stronger consumer spending and thus boost growth. Stronger growth could help reduce Europe’s valuation discount versus the U.S.
We focus on selective opportunities in Europe. Our preference for financials, utilities and industrials has played out this year; these are Europe’s best-performing sectors this year. Yet more attractive valuations lead us to switch from industrials to the healthcare sector, which benefits from strong cash flows and AI adoption. Longer-term, we still see stepped-up NATO spending commitments supporting defense and industrials. On AI, the U.S. leads on AI buildout, but Europe could take a lead on AI adoption, driving efficiency gains in sectors like manufacturing that comprise a larger share of its economy.
Our bottom line
We are neutral European stocks but see many selective opportunities. We don’t think Europe needs total success on every front to turn a page, just a dedication to pushing forward reforms and not just in crisis moments.
Market backdrop
The S&P 500 fell 2% last week on renewed concerns about the AI theme and valuations, even after Nvidia’s earnings beat expectations. We don’t think rising AI-related debt issuance is a concern. The delayed U.S. jobs report for September, while beating expectations, supports our view that the labor market is cooling and can allow the Federal Reserve to trim policy rates more. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dipped but stayed in a rough range between 4.00-4.20% in recent months.
Delayed U.S. economic data is starting to trickle out – but next week will still be quiet around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it would release both the October and November jobs report on Dec. 16 – after the next Fed meeting. The October report will only feature the establishment survey used for payrolls data. The November jobs report will be noisy due to government layoffs from earlier this year that were deferred.
Week Ahead
Nov. 24 : Germany Ifo business confidence
Nov. 26 : U.S. weekly jobless claims
Nov. 28 : Chicago PMI; Euro area country CPIs
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