The FOMC minutes (Wed), the US December PCE Index (Fri) and earnings from major mining companies will be key from markets this week. Today brings UK Rightmove house prices, eurozone industrial production, and a holiday-thinned session in the US for Presidents’ Day, while parts of Asia close for Lunar New Year’s Eve. The Lunar New Year begins Tuesday, and we have Germany’s CPI and ZEW survey expectations, UK labour market data, and the US Empire State manufacturing index. On Wednesday, UK CPI will be closely scrutinised, before attention turns to a raft of US releases including housing starts, the leading index, industrial production, durable goods orders and cross-border capital flows. Thursday brings eurozone consumer confidence and US initial jobless claims, trade data and pending home sales. Earnings from Walmart will also be in focus, given its status as a key consumer bellwether. Friday rounds out the week with UK retail sales and manufacturing PMI data. In the US, markets will digest personal income and spending figures, the PCE Price Index, GDP, new home sales, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and flash manufacturing PMI readings.
Central bank commentary remains active. On Monday, Fed Governor Bowman and ECB’s Nagel speak. Tuesday sees the Fed’s Barr discuss the labour market and AI, while Daly addresses AI and the broader economy. On Wednesday, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel speaks on sovereign debt. Later in the week, the Fed’s Goolsbee reflects on financial crises, Bostic outlines the banking outlook, and Kashkari comments on the economic trajectory.
The “AI scare trade” unsettled markets last week, amplifying investor caution against a backdrop of broadly disappointing US economic data. Sentiment did recover into Friday’s close, however, after a benign US inflation print eased fears of renewed price pressures. The 10-year US Treasury yield rallied 16bps to 4.05%, while the S&P 500 declined 1.39% over the week. The dollar also weakened, with the DXY index down 0.74%, pressured by a combination of softer economic data and shifting rate expectations. Brent crude slipped 0.44% to $67.75 per barrel, weighed down by bearish agency reports and a fading geopolitical risk premium.
Meanwhile, US retail sales were flat in December, missing expectations for a modest increase and slowing from November’s pace. That the weakness occurred during the crucial holiday shopping period, typically a strong season for consumer spending, points to emerging softness in underlying demand heading into 2026. In contrast, CPI came in-line with expectations, offering reassurance that inflation is not re-accelerating. Together with recent labour market revisions, the data reinforce the prevailing narrative: while the Fed remains on pause for now, the prospect of rate cuts is gradually moving closer into view. Markets are currently pricing over two 25bps cuts this year, with the first fully priced in July. Last week, China’s economy focused on a strategic pivot toward domestic consumption as it entered the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) and prepared for the Lunar New Year. While the manufacturing sector showed resilience, the government addressed sluggish internal demand, evidenced by 0.2% inflation, by signalling a “moderately loose” monetary policy and expanding consumer trade-in programs. Simultaneously, the renminbi (CNY) hit a multi-year high, breaking below the 6.90 level against the US dollar.
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EPIC Global Equity Fund (the “Fund”) is a sub-fund of EPIC Funds p.l.c. (the “Company”), which is an open-ended umbrella fund authorised in Ireland as a UCITS fund and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. This marketing material has been approved in the UK by EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, trading as EPIC Investment Partners, which is a limited liability partnership incorporated and registered in England and Wales under partnership OC306260 with its registered office at Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. EPIC Markets (UK) LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Distribution of this material and the offer of the Fund are specifically restricted in certain jurisdictions. In particular, but without limitation, neither this material nor shares in the Fund are available to US persons.
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