Heightened geopolitical tensions and a packed calendar of central bank meetings will keep markets on tenterhooks this week. Policy decisions include the Fed on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. While all are widely expected to leave rates unchanged, the accompanying press conferences will be closely scrutinised for any shift in policy guidance. On the data front, the US Empire manufacturing survey and industrial production figures are released later today. Tuesday brings Germany’s ZEW survey alongside the US Conference Board leading index and pending home sales. Wednesday will see eurozone CPI and US PPI and factory orders. Thursday’s focus turns to the UK labour market report and a cluster of US indicators including wholesale inventories, new home sales, initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed outlook. The week concludes with the quarterly “quadruple witching” in US markets, coinciding with the start of spring.
Last week was dominated by a sharp spike in energy prices as the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran intensified, sending Brent Crude above $100pb amid blockades in the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation fuelled widespread stagflation concerns and was compounded by a sharp downward revision to US Q4’2025 GDP growth to just 0.7%, half the initial 1.4% estimate. Markets experienced notable volatility across asset classes. The yield on the 10-year UST rose 14bps to 4.28%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, marking its third consecutive weekly decline. The US dollar gained 1.39% as investors moved toward safe-haven assets and reassessed interest rate expectations.
In the US, February’s CPI and January PCE prints appeared stable, but markets viewed the figure as largely backward-looking as it failed to capture the mid-March oil price spike. This concern was echoed in the March 2026 consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan, where the headline index dropped sharply to 55.5, its lowest level this year. While early-month data had hinted at stabilisation, the post-February escalation in the Iran conflict triggered a 7.5% decline in personal finance expectations as households reacted to rising petrol prices. One-year inflation expectations stalled at 3.4%, ending a six-month decline and suggesting that consumers believe the “easy” phase of disinflation has passed. For the Fed, this combination of recession-like sentiment (currently in the 2nd percentile of historical averages) and sticky short-term inflation expectations complicates the path toward potential rate cuts.
Amid the global volatility, China has emerged as a relative haven, benefiting from reduced structural exposure to oil shocks due to rapid electric-vehicle adoption, diversified energy supply routes and expanded strategic reserves. The conclusion of the National People’s Congress on 12 March signalled a shift from isolated “AI+” initiatives toward a broader “intelligent economy” strategy aimed at redefining the country’s growth model. Complementing this, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China introduced a new “negative list” to curb inefficient local government subsidies and encourage a more transparent, rules-based business environment. While China continues to post a sizable $213.6 billion trade surplus and solid corporate lending growth, the domestic economy remains bifurcated: strong M2 expansion of around 9% and resilient exports are offset by ongoing household deleveraging linked to the property market adjustment. The Chinese renminbi has remained broadly stable against the dollar, while government bond yields have barely moved, signalling a degree of resilience despite heightened global uncertainty.
Epic Investment Partner’s Key risks & Disclaimers:
EPIC Global Equity Fund (the “Fund”) is a sub-fund of EPIC Funds p.l.c. (the “Company”), which is an open-ended umbrella fund authorised in Ireland as a UCITS fund and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. This marketing material has been approved in the UK by EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, trading as EPIC Investment Partners, which is a limited liability partnership incorporated and registered in England and Wales under partnership OC306260 with its registered office at Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. EPIC Markets (UK) LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Distribution of this material and the offer of the Fund are specifically restricted in certain jurisdictions. In particular, but without limitation, neither this material nor shares in the Fund are available to US persons.
This document is for general information purposes only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. It is not a personal recommendation and it should not be regarded as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any shares in the Fund. This document represents the views of EPIC Investment Partners at the time of writing. It should not be construed as investment advice. Any person interested in investing in the Fund should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the Fund and should consult their own professional tax, accounting or other advisers as to the risks involved in making such an investment. Full details of the Fund’s investment objectives, investment policy and risks are set out in the Fund’s Prospectus and Supplement which, together with the Key Information Document (“KID”), are available on request and free of charge from Maples Fund Services (Ireland) Limited, 32 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2, Ireland and, in the UK, from EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. Any offering of the Fund is only made on the terms of the current Prospectus, Supplement and KID. A subscription in the Fund can only be made after the provision of the KIID and should be made solely upon the information contained in the Prospectus, Supplement and KID.
An investment in the Fund is not suitable for an investor who cannot sustain a loss on their investment. There is no guarantee of the Fund’s future performance and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of your investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the money you invested. The risks associated with making an investment in the Fund are described in the Prospectus and Supplement but investors should note, in particular, the following: 1) Foreign currency denominated investments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have a positive or an adverse effect on an investor’s returns. There is also a risk that currency hedging transactions for one share class may in extreme cases adversely affect the net asset value of the other share classes within the same sub-fund since there is no legal segregation between share classes; 2) The Fund is subject to the risk of the insolvency of its counterparties; and 3) Emerging market securities are subject to greater social, political, regulatory, and currency risks than developed market securities. This may impact the liquidity and value of such securities and, consequently, the value of the Fund.
MeDirect Disclaimers:
This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from EPIC Investment Partners. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.
The financial instruments discussed in the document is intended for retail clients however, it may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.
If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Information Document (KID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.
