We expect further delays to data releases this week amid the US government shutdown. Of interest will be the delayed US inflation report (Fri), and Chinese policymakers gather for the Fourth Plenum to discuss the 15th five-year plan for the economy (Mon-Thu). With earnings season in full swing, we have reports from Netflix and Tesla amongst other major companies.
The US Conference Board leading Index prints are due for release later today, and we will hear from the ECB’s Schnabel, Nagel and Vujcic. The central bank’s Lagarde, Lane and Kocher appear at separate events on Tuesday. UK CPI hits the screens on Wednesday, and we will hear from Lagarde again. Eurozone consumer confidence, US jobless claims and existing home sales follow on Thursday. A host of manufacturing PMIs are due on Friday, and UK retail sales and US CPI, new home sales and the University of Michigan sentiment prints end the week.
With limited key data releases last week given the ongoing US senate stalemate, market focus shifted to mixed US-China trade rhetoric and the increasingly dovish Fed chatter. Last week we heard from a number of Fed members, including Paulson who supports two more quarter-point rate cuts this year, as she does not expect tariff-induced price increases to result in sustained inflation. Her counterpart Waller raised concerns over the flattering labour market calling for sustained 25bp cuts to avoid “a mistake”. Chair Powell signalled a further cut is coming at next week’s FOMC meeting given the slowdown in hiring posing a risk to the economy.
The September Beige Book noted softer consumer spending while prices had risen in many districts, “but the extent of those higher costs passing through to final prices varied”. It added that “employment levels were largely stable in recent weeks, and demand for labour was generally muted across districts and sectors. In most districts, more employers reported lowering head counts through layoffs and attrition, with contacts citing weaker demand, elevated economic uncertainty, and, in some cases, increased investment in artificial intelligence technologies.”
Separately, despite the tempering of high tariffs, the global economic outlook remains volatile as temporary growth factors fade. The latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects a slight slowdown in global growth from 3.3% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, driven by downside risks like increased protectionism and labour supply shocks, while inflation projections vary significantly across countries. Policymakers are therefore urged to restore confidence and stability through credible and transparent measures, including rebuilding fiscal buffers and preserving central bank independence.
Elsewhere, this morning’s data releases for China highlight areas of resilience and strategic shifts despite ongoing economic restructuring. The economy’s third-quarter growth of 4.8% was marginally higher than market expectations, even amid a protracted real estate slump. Furthermore, industrial production demonstrated robust strength, climbing 6.5% in September suggesting solid performance in the nation’s manufacturing backbone. The property sector remains a major drag, with fixed assets unexpectedly falling year-to-date, while property investment and residential property sales also disappointed to the downside. Markets await more meaningful support from policymakers.
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