This week carries plenty of market-moving potential with major central bank decisions, plenty of global corporate earnings, and ongoing geopolitical risks in focus. Sentiment is also likely to be shaped by developments in the Middle East, with the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire entering a critical phase today, while stalled US-Iran negotiations continue to add to regional uncertainty. Tuesday begins with the BoJ rate decision and quarterly outlook report, followed later by the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence release. Markets will also watch Eurozone sentiment data, German CPI, and US housing starts for further clues on regional growth and inflation trends. Attention then turns to the FOMC meeting, where the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged. The key focus will be on any guidance from Chair Powell’s presser. Thursday starts with China PMI data, offering an early read on global manufacturing momentum. The BoE and ECB policy decisions will also be central events, with markets especially focused on commentary from Andrew Bailey and Christine Lagarde. Additional releases include Eurozone CPI, GDP and unemployment, alongside US GDP, personal income, and initial jobless claims. The week concludes on Friday (May Day) with Japan CPI, UK and US PMI surveys, and the US ISM Manufacturing report, rounding off an important week for assessing the global growth and inflation backdrop.
Last week market sentiment was driven by broadly strong Q1 corporate earnings, particularly in the tech sector, and rising anxiety over geopolitical instability. Asset classes simultaneously focused on Senate testimony from Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, parsing his remarks for clues regarding the future path of interest rates. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 5bps to 4.30%, while the S&P Index rose to further highs, up 0.55% on the week. Brent crude pierced through $100pb again, gaining 16.54%. The dollar enjoyed its first weekly gain this month, with the DXY Index up 0.44%.
US data last week painted a mixed but still resilient macro picture. Retail sales came in stronger than expected, though much of the upside was driven by price effects and energy-related spending, raising questions over the strength of underlying real consumption. Tariff pass-through continues to be a key theme, with goods inflation remaining sticky and feeding into both corporate input costs and household budgets. Attention also centred on the University of Michigan survey, where consumer sentiment ticked up modestly from its initial lows but remained near historic troughs. Inflation expectations were marginally unchanged. The 1-year outlook edged down slightly to 4.7%, while the 5–10 year measure ticked up to 3.5%. Markets also monitored Senate confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh for any insight into the future Fed policy stance, while trade policy uncertainty remained a key overhang, with ongoing Section 301 and 232 tariff investigations keeping businesses cautious around future input cost risks.
In China, policy remained steady and supportive, with the PBoC holding rates at 3.00% and maintaining a cautious, moderately accommodative stance focused on stabilising growth while preserving financial stability. Currency management continued under a tightly managed floating regime, with emphasis on FX stability and avoiding disorderly depreciation. Importantly, industrial profits showed a clear rebound, reinforcing signs of improving cyclical momentum in manufacturing and suggesting early stabilisation in corporate earnings. However, this recovery remains uneven and closely managed, with authorities simultaneously tightening oversight of financial channels, including new rules on online financial marketing and crackdowns on illicit FX and virtual currency activity, highlighting a continued focus on containing systemic risk while supporting a gradual and controlled recovery.
Epic Investment Partner’s Key risks & Disclaimers:
EPIC Global Equity Fund (the “Fund”) is a sub-fund of EPIC Funds p.l.c. (the “Company”), which is an open-ended umbrella fund authorised in Ireland as a UCITS fund and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. This marketing material has been approved in the UK by EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, trading as EPIC Investment Partners, which is a limited liability partnership incorporated and registered in England and Wales under partnership OC306260 with its registered office at Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. EPIC Markets (UK) LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Distribution of this material and the offer of the Fund are specifically restricted in certain jurisdictions. In particular, but without limitation, neither this material nor shares in the Fund are available to US persons.
This document is for general information purposes only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. It is not a personal recommendation and it should not be regarded as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any shares in the Fund. This document represents the views of EPIC Investment Partners at the time of writing. It should not be construed as investment advice. Any person interested in investing in the Fund should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the Fund and should consult their own professional tax, accounting or other advisers as to the risks involved in making such an investment. Full details of the Fund’s investment objectives, investment policy and risks are set out in the Fund’s Prospectus and Supplement which, together with the Key Information Document (“KID”), are available on request and free of charge from Maples Fund Services (Ireland) Limited, 32 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2, Ireland and, in the UK, from EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. Any offering of the Fund is only made on the terms of the current Prospectus, Supplement and KID. A subscription in the Fund can only be made after the provision of the KIID and should be made solely upon the information contained in the Prospectus, Supplement and KID.
An investment in the Fund is not suitable for an investor who cannot sustain a loss on their investment. There is no guarantee of the Fund’s future performance and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of your investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the money you invested. The risks associated with making an investment in the Fund are described in the Prospectus and Supplement but investors should note, in particular, the following: 1) Foreign currency denominated investments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have a positive or an adverse effect on an investor’s returns. There is also a risk that currency hedging transactions for one share class may in extreme cases adversely affect the net asset value of the other share classes within the same sub-fund since there is no legal segregation between share classes; 2) The Fund is subject to the risk of the insolvency of its counterparties; and 3) Emerging market securities are subject to greater social, political, regulatory, and currency risks than developed market securities. This may impact the liquidity and value of such securities and, consequently, the value of the Fund.
MeDirect Disclaimers:
This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from EPIC Investment Partners. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.
The financial instruments discussed in the document is intended for retail clients however, it may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.
If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Information Document (KID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.
