All eyes are on this Thursday’s ECB meeting after last week’s Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came ahead of expectations at 8.1%, putting further pressure on the ECB to rein in inflation
The ECB is set to confirm this week that rate increases are imminent, and markets expect it to hike well into 2023. The Fed is seen to reach peak rates at this year’s end. The sum total of rate hikes will ultimately prove to be historically low, we believe, as central banks choose to live with inflation rather than squash growth
On a strategic horizon of five years and longer, BlackRock asset views are still positioned for an inflationary environment. They see inflation easing yet settling above pre-Covid levels: central banks will choose to live with some supply-driven inflation rather than destroy growth and jobs to fight it. That’s why they favor equities over bonds.
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The Fed stepped up its rhetoric last week by vowing to bring inflation down at any cost. We think reality will be more complex. The hit to Chinese growth is starting to rival its 2020 shock and already surpasses the one from the global financial crisis.
Last week global equity markets struggled for any clear direction as investors fretted about economic growth. Regionally, performance was very mixed. The S&P 500 Index closed the week down 3%, the STOXX Europe 600 Index closed down 0.6%, whilst the MSCI Asia Pacific Index outperformed, closing the week up 2.8%.
Equities have fallen hard this year on the prospect of rapid rate increases to rein in inflation, the tragic Ukraine war and a slowdown in China. BlackRock think equities remain more attractive than bonds, even as the historic sell-off in bonds has cut the gap between the two.
Given recent declines, there is much discussion around what is priced into market. With global markets declining for six consecutive weeks, there is an increasing debate over how much bad news is priced in, and whether markets are now oversold.
Coming out of the depths of the pandemic, US equity and fixed income markets are facing new challenges this year amidst a rising interest rate environment and deceleration in growth. With this changing backdrop, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions’ Ed Perks shares his latest outlook and the investment opportunities he sees across asset classes.
In this article, Stephen Yiu, discusses the performance of the Blue Whale fund as at the end of April 2022 in light of the Ukraine crisis and inflation woes which have weighed heavily on markets this year.
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