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Notes from the Trading Desk – Franklin Templeton

Last week was unsteady for equity markets with much of the focus on inflation data our of the United States and China. A further easing of restrictions in parts of the UK and Europe will help build the recovery.

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BlackRock Commentary: Mind the (rate expectation) gap

Markets are pricing in a liftoff from near-zero policy rates as early as next year, even though the Fed through its new framework has committed to stay behind the curve on inflation. BlackRock caution against extrapolating too much from strong near-term activity data amid a powerful restart. BlackRock see a high bar for the Fed to change its policy stance and believe this may be underappreciated by markets.

BlackRock Commentary: Inflation – beyond near-term volatility

Inflation looks set to overshoot the Fed’s target as BlackRock expected. Yet BlackRock see uncertainties around the near-term persistence of the overshoot as the restart leads to unusual supply and demand dynamics. BlackRock have closed their tactical overweight in inflation-linked bonds as inflation expectations have risen sharply but favoured them strategically as they see medium-term inflation still underpriced.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Franklin Templeton

Global equities traded marginally lower last week, with much of the focus at a company level as first quarter (Q1) earnings season progresses. Despite strong earnings and record beats, there was lackluster price action, with significant divergence in each region.

BlackRock Commentary: Why we remain pro-risk

A powerful economic restart is underway in the U.S. – with Europe and emerging markets (EMs) set to follow. At the same time BlackRock’s new nominal theme has been playing out, with a hefty jump in inflation expectations but a more muted rise in nominal yields. Against this backdrop, BlackRock reiterate their pro-risk stance and refine our tactical views in response to adjustments in market pricing and valuations.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Franklin Templeton

Equities globally were lacklustre last week, with Europe underperforming amid a position-driven selloff. Outside of the obvious continuing focus on the pandemic and vaccine rollouts, there was little in the way of broad market themes, which in turn saw focus shifting to technical factors and company specifics amidst the first-quarter earnings season.

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