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Epic Investment Partners Views: The Week Ahead

This week’s economic calendar reveals a somewhat subdued landscape for key data releases in Europe, with limited market-moving potential. However, a few notable indicators are worth commenting on. In Spain, June’s trade deficit showed a significant improvement, shrinking to -€713 million due to a sharp decline in imports. On Tuesday, the Eurozone’s Current Account for June is anticipated, and the forecast of €36.7 billion highlights the EU’s competitive trade position, even though disparities remain among member states. In the UK earlier today, Rightmove reported UK August house prices fell 1.5% m/m, +0.8% y/y with London house prices -2.1% m/m, +0.7% y/y. 

Looking ahead, the manufacturing and services sectors appear to be holding their ground, as preliminary readings for the S&P Global UK PMIs for August are expected to show modest expansion. Though consumer confidence remains relatively low, there are hints of gradual improvement, and we should have that confirmed on Friday. 

However, the spotlight remains on the United States. Throughout the week, crucial labour market, housing market, and manufacturing data will be released, alongside the FOMC minutes, which could offer valuable insights into the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. The Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator, due Thursday, will be closely monitored for signs of a potential recession although the current reading suggests otherwise.  

Yet, all these developments are likely to be overshadowed by the much-anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium. This annual gathering of central bankers, economists, and financial leaders provides a platform for in-depth discussions and presentations on critical economic issues. The symposium’s theme, “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy,” highlights the ongoing reassessment of central banks’ tools and their impact on the economy. 

As the world grapples with lingering inflation concerns and the potential for rate cuts, market participants will keenly listen for any signals from policymakers, particularly Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, about the future direction of monetary policy. 

As Mohamed El-Erian articulates in his Bloomberg column, this year’s Jackson Hole Symposium holds particular significance due to the economic fluidity and financial volatility experienced in the US and its global ramifications. The erosion of traditional anchors of stability, like predictable growth and effective policy guidance, has amplified uncertainty. El-Erian emphasises that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a “golden opportunity” to regain control of the narrative by providing clarity on the economy’s current state, the desired policy destination, and the path to get there. A clearer understanding of the new equilibrium policy rate and the practical implications of a “sustainable 2%” inflation target is crucial. 

Unlike the European data releases, comments from Powell have the potential to be market-moving. In essence, Jackson Hole holds the potential to either calm or further unsettle the markets. Powell’s challenge is to articulate a clear policy path that restores confidence and stability, addressing the current climate of uncertainty and the Fed’s role in shaping a more predictable economic future.  


Epic Investment Partner’s Key risks & Disclaimers:

EPIC Global Equity Fund (the “Fund”) is a sub-fund of EPIC Funds p.l.c. (the “Company”), which is an open-ended umbrella fund authorised in Ireland as a UCITS fund and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. This marketing material has been approved in the UK by EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, trading as EPIC Investment Partners, which is a limited liability partnership incorporated and registered in England and Wales under partnership OC306260 with its registered office at Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. EPIC Markets (UK) LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Distribution of this material and the offer of the Fund are specifically restricted in certain jurisdictions. In particular, but without limitation, neither this material nor shares in the Fund are available to US persons.

This document is for general information purposes only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. It is not a personal recommendation and it should not be regarded as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any shares in the Fund. This document represents the views of EPIC Investment Partners at the time of writing. It should not be construed as investment advice. Any person interested in investing in the Fund should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the Fund and should consult their own professional tax, accounting or other advisers as to the risks involved in making such an investment. Full details of the Fund’s investment objectives, investment policy and risks are set out in the Fund’s Prospectus and Supplement which, together with the Key Information Document (“KID”), are available on request and free of charge from Maples Fund Services (Ireland) Limited, 32 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2, Ireland and, in the UK, from EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. Any offering of the Fund is only made on the terms of the current Prospectus, Supplement and KID. A subscription in the Fund can only be made after the provision of the KIID and should be made solely upon the information contained in the Prospectus, Supplement and KID.

An investment in the Fund is not suitable for an investor who cannot sustain a loss on their investment. There is no guarantee of the Fund’s future performance and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of your investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the money you invested. The risks associated with making an investment in the Fund are described in the Prospectus and Supplement but investors should note, in particular, the following: 1) Foreign currency denominated investments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have a positive or an adverse effect on an investor’s returns. There is also a risk that currency hedging transactions for one share class may in extreme cases adversely affect the net asset value of the other share classes within the same sub-fund since there is no legal segregation between share classes; 2) The Fund is subject to the risk of the insolvency of its counterparties; and 3) Emerging market securities are subject to greater social, political, regulatory, and currency risks than developed market securities. This may impact the liquidity and value of such securities and, consequently, the value of the Fund.


MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from EPIC Investment Partners. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document is intended for retail clients however, it may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Information Document (KID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

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