Mike Pyle, Global Chief Investment Strategist, together with Scott Thiel, Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Kurt Reiman, Senior Strategist for North America, and Tara Sharma, Member of the Macro Research team, all part of the BlackRock Investment Institute, share their insights on global economy, markets and geopolitics. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.
A prolonged period of U.S. dollar gains has reversed abruptly. The policy revolution to cushion the pandemic’s blow is a key driver, as it has eroded the dollar’s interest rate advantage and helped lift risk appetite off its March trough, in our view. The different restart dynamics in the U.S. and Europe have also pressured the dollar, underscoring our preference for European equities and caution on U.S. stocks.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv Datastream, as of August 5, 2020. Notes: The chart compares the price returns of the MSCI EMU Index in local currency terms and in U.S. dollar terms. The returns are rebased to 100 at the start of 2020.
We upgraded European stocks to overweight, on the back of the region’s robust public health infrastructure and a galvanized policy response. These two factors have moved the currency market more than the equity market so far. Unhedged, dollar-based investors in European equities have benefitted as a result, even as returns in euro terms have lagged. The price return in dollar terms (yellow) had largely trailed that in local-currency terms (orange) until late June when the trend reversed. See the chart above. We see the fundamental dynamics ultimately flowing through and helping local-currency equity returns. We are much less sanguine about emerging market (EM) equities as many EM countries outside northern Asia struggle to contain the virus spread and have limited policy space to cushion the virus shock, even with the help of a weaker dollar.
The dollar had enjoyed a decade of nearly uninterrupted gains – and had a strong start in 2020 in part helped by pandemic-triggered global risk aversion and a seizing-up of the dollar funding market. We see the unprecedented policy revolution as helping reverse that trend since March. The Federal Reserve and other central banks have cut rates and initiated other easing measures, leading to the compression of interest rate differentials between the U.S. and most developed economies, just as governments have unleashed fiscal stimulus to help households and businesses bridge the virus shock. The forceful policy response has revived risk appetite, driving investors away from perceived safe-haven assets. The Fed’s measures to alleviate the dollar funding shortage also helped take the wind out of the greenback’s rally.
The euro as well as a handful of other European currencies have led the outperformance against the dollar in recent months, cheered on by the region’s improving virus dynamics and galvanizing policy response. The creation of the European recovery fund, and its upcoming issuance of pan-European bonds, has been a boon for the euro. The situation in the U.S. appears less encouraging. Negotiations over the next round of fiscal relief measures have dragged on even as key benefits expire, while COVID cases are rising in most of the country. We expect dollar weakness to persist in the near term as the drivers for its recent decline remain in place. The longer-term outlook is harder to gauge. A key question is the currency implications of the policy revolution – especially if and how central bankers build guardrails to manage growing balance sheets in the face of greater fiscal deficits and debt issuance. The prospect of the dollar retaining its perceived safe-haven status is another concern. We are weighing these as a contentious U.S. presidential election looms.
The bottom line: The shifting pandemic and restart dynamics in the U.S. and Europe have helped weaken the dollar and strengthen the euro, underpinning our overweight on European stocks and caution on their U.S. peers. A weaker dollar generally is positive for EM assets, yet we see the relatively weak public health infrastructure and limited policy space more than offsetting such benefit across much of the EM complex. We are underweight EM equities overall and EM dollar debt, as many of developing countries have limited capacity to control the virus spread and cushion the blow to the economy. We are neutral and more constructive on EM Asia equities and local-currency EM debt.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv Datastream, August 2020. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns versus the end of 2019, and the dots represent year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in U.S. dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, MSCI USA Index, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), MSCI Europe Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond (U.S. , German and Italy), MSCI Emerging Markets Index, spot gold and J.P. Morgan EMBI index.
Activity has started to normalize in both Europe and North Asia, albeit with localized lockdowns to contain virus clusters. The pandemic is still spreading in the U.S. and many emerging markets. The unprecedented policy response has boosted risk assets. Europe has agreed on a historic recovery fund, but U.S. stimulus is now at risk of fading. Talks over the size and makeup of a new U.S. fiscal package have dragged on as some key benefits expired and states face huge budget shortfalls. We could see a $1-1.5 trillion fiscal package that extends some (but not all) federal stimulus measures through late-2020.
- August 10th to 17th: China inflation, total social financing, money supply and new loans
- August 11th: German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
- August 12th: UK second-quarter gross domestic product; U.S. consumer price index
- August 14th: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; China industrial output
Markets will focus on the sentiment data from Germany and the U.S., after some levelling-off of some sentiment indicators amid ongoing concerns of renewed spread of the virus around the world. A flurry of data from China, including inflation, industrial output, retail sales and lending, could shed light on the progress of the activity restart in the world’s second-largest economy.
BlackRock’s Key risks & Disclaimers:
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of August 10th, 2020 and may change. The information and opinions are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This material may contain ’forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.
The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation, and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets or smaller capital markets.
Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL.
This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.
The financial instruments discussed in the document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.
If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment and may be deducted from the invested amount therefore lowering the size of your investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Document (KIID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.