Blue Whale Update: We’re looking for truly beautiful companies

Stephen Yiu - Blue Whale Fund Manager Stephen Yiu is the Chief Investment Officer at Blue Whale Capital and Lead Manager of the Blue Whale Growth Fund.
Stephen co-founded Blue Whale Capital with Peter Hargreaves, co-founder of Hargreaves Lansdown, in 2016. The Blue Whale Growth Fund was launched in September 2020 and is a long-only global equity fund focusing on developed markets.
Stephen adopts a high conviction, active approach based on bottom-up, fundamental research.

It’s become increasingly popular to talk about investing in “Quality” as a style factor, indeed, we ourselves often talk about investing in high quality companies. However, just like people often confuse value investing with simply buying cheap stocks, in our mind, high quality companies are more than just businesses with stable earnings.

This is why we’d like to introduce our “Beautiful Companies” concept to help focus on what makes high quality companies great. In this post, we go on a brief detour into classical aesthetics before applying this to our mission of generating consistent significant outperformance by investing in truly beautiful companies.

Our interpretation of beauty is most closely aligned with the Ancient Greek idea of kalos kai agathos (the beautiful and good), where both form and function are important: a beautiful sword might be adorned with jewels but must also possess a sharp edge, a beautiful person might have excellent bone structure and perfect teeth, but must also be in possession of a noble character. For something to be truly beautiful, it must also be worthy of admiration. Beauty lies beyond competence and cosmetics – there must be excellence and cultivation too.

What is a beautiful company?

We find it helpful applying the Greek concept of Beauty when assessing company quality.

“Nothing forced is beautiful” – Xenophon, on Horsemanship

We avoid companies where beauty is only skin-deep. We see them in “narrative stocks” where the share price is sustained by stories, not fundamentals. The hype generated by company management or other stock promoters could last several years but ultimately, economic fundamentals will exert themselves.

These are companies where the majority of their value comes from unreasonably assuming dominance in uncertain, unproven – or sometimes unknown – future markets. We consider the likes of Tesla, Airbnb and Peloton to fall into this category.

“The object of education is to teach us to love what is beautiful” – Plato, The Republic

For us, the goal of investment research is to identify beautiful companies. A truly beautiful company must not only have a compelling narrative but also the fundamentals to back it up. We look for exceptional businesses that are well managed, operating in attractive industries and that can grow sustainably.

These companies often deliver products or services that provide exquisite value for customers, have a clear roadmap to sustainable growth, have low risk of disruption, have low exposure to macro and geopolitical risks, do not depend on the debt cycle or leverage to stay profitable, and importantly, have the numbers to back it all up.

They often achieve this through an ability to deliver innovation over the long term, investing in delighting their customers, operating in low or benign levels of competition, possessing high standards of governance and management that are reliable, capable and well-aligned with stakeholders.

We admire companies that are able to demonstrate all of these characteristics and we consider them beautiful. Most important of all, and what takes our concept of beauty beyond mere quality, is our focus on the management and culture of a business. Management and culture within a business is the equivalent of a noble character in people. There is no beauty in a business if it is poorly run just as there is no grace in a pretty face with poor character.

Buying beautiful companies


A detailed discussion of how we put in practise our Beautiful Companies concept could fill a book, but we list below some examples that help to illustrate our process.

“The beauty you see is a reflection of you” – Rumi, 13th century Persian poet

With truly beautiful companies rare and those at attractive valuations even more so, it is not often that we have the opportunity to buy them. However, there are times when beauty is underappreciated by the market and at these times, we act decisively.

In late 2017, Autodesk was going through a fundamental transition in the way it sold its design software. Part of the transition meant that quarterly earnings reported in November looked comparatively weaker than they would have done under prior sales methods and share prices took a tumble. Our existing work on Adobe suggested that this transition was indeed a beautiful one as it would strengthen the company’s ability to retain customers and continue innovating. We established a position in March 2018 and saw the transition play out as expected. We are glad that this was also reflected in Autodesk’s share price performance.

“You ain’t a beauty, but hey you’re alright” – Bruce Springsteen, Thunder Road 1975

What makes truly beautiful companies rare is the combined criteria of an exceptional business with admirable management. This means that possessing a portfolio of 30 such companies at attractive valuations is a highly unlikely event.

Facebook is a great example of how we bridge the gap between the theoretical and the practical. The company itself is exceptional – as the world’s largest social network, it single-handedly created new ways for people to connect with each other and consume content. While the quality of decisions made at Facebook can at times be questionable (we took issue with the second part of their now-retired motto of “move fast and break things”), we do clearly see that management has made a gradual ascent in maturity from adolescence to something more resembling adulthood. This is why Facebook has a position in our portfolio.

Beauty and Value

In managing the Blue Whale Growth Fund, we bring together our Beautiful Companies concept with our valuation framework aiming to generate consistent significant outperformance. Identifying beautiful companies ensures that business fundamentals support growing revenues and cashflows while our valuation framework is designed to ensure that we are not overpaying.

As we wrote previously, an investment decision without a fundamental understanding of a business is no better than investing on the roll of a dice. We have invested significantly in our investment team since fund inception to make sure our research function is extremely well resourced. As our funds grow, we will continue to reinvest in our research capabilities to continue uncovering truly beautiful companies.

Blue Whale Growth Fund is manufactured by Blue Whale Capital LLP and represented in Malta by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.


Blue Whale Key Risks & Disclaimers:

The Blue Whale Growth Fund was launched in September 2020. All references to actions before this date relate to the LF Blue Whale Growth Fund.  Information on the LF Blue Whale Growth Fund is provided for comparison purposes only; it is a UK UCITS which is not registered for sale in nor is it promoted to investors in the EEA.  Whilst the investment objectives and charges are not identical, both funds are run on the same investment process.

Please note that the information provided in this article is not to be construed as advice and any views we express on holdings do not constitute investment recommendations and must not be viewed as such. If you are unsure as to the suitability of an investment for your circumstances, please seek independent financial advice. Investments can go down in value as well as up so you may get back less than you invested. Your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.Blue Whale Capital LLP is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

There are significant risks associated with investment in the Fund referred to herein. Investment in the Fund is intended for investors who understand and can accept the risks associated with such an investment including potentially a substantial or complete loss of their investment.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income derived from them can go down as well as up and the value of your investment may be volatile and be subject to sudden and substantial falls.

Investment in a Fund with exposure to emerging markets involves risk factors and special considerations which may not be typically associated with investing in more developed markets. Political or economic change and instability may be more likely to occur and have a greater effect on the economies and markets of emerging countries. Adverse government policies, taxation, restrictions on foreign investment and on currency convertibility and repatriation, currency fluctuations and other developments in the laws and regulations of emerging countries in which investment may be made, including expropriation, nationalisation or other confiscation could result in loss to the Fund.

Income from investments may fluctuate. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of investments. Fund charges may be applied in whole or part to capital, which may result in capital erosion. The Authorised Corporate Director may apply a dilution adjustment as detailed in the Prospectus. The Fund is not traded on an exchange or recognised market.

The foregoing list of risk factors is not complete, and reference should be made to the Fund’s Prospectus, KIID and application form.


MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from Blue Whale Growth Fund. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment and may be deducted from the invested amount therefore lowering the size of your investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Document (KIID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Franklin Templeton

Franklin Templeton’s Notes from the Trading Desk offers a weekly overview of what their professional traders and analysts are watching in the markets. The European desk is manned by eight professionals based in Edinburgh, Scotland, with an average of 15 years of experience whose job it is to monitor the markets around the world. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.


The Digest

Last week saw stabilisation in European government bond yields, which in turn, led to rotation back into some of the more recent losers, and defensive stocks. Alongside this, the reopening trade was firmly in play. All sectors closed the week higher and the STOXX Europe 600 Index gained 3.5%, making back last week’s losses and more. Whilst yields stabilised in Europe, in the United States they continued to push higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield gaining 5.9 basis points (bps) to 1.626%, breaking new 52-week highs. The S&P 500 Index closed the week up 2.8%, with all sectors in the green. The Asia and Pacific (APAC) region underperformed, with the MSCI APAC Index only gaining 0.9% on the week.

The recent value surge paused for breath in Europe, with the value basket the worst weekly performer, whilst the stay-at-home basket outperformed. This is more due to its defensive nature, however, as the retail sector was also higher on reopening hopes. There were quite a few moving parts behind sector dispersion.

Telecommunications and utilities were two of last week’s best-performing sectors given their defensive tilt, also joined by travel and leisure on the reopening theme. Construction and materials benefitted from US stimulus. Real estate, and basic resources sectors were relative underperformers as part of the value consolidation.

Meanwhile, automobiles and miners lagged last Thursday especially, with the market rotating out of China-exposed names as concerns over tightening of stimulus measure there weighed on sentiment. The banks and financial services also put in more muted performances, selling off on Thursday as yields tightened after the European Central Bank (ECB) signalled it was uncomfortable with the recent rise in yields.

The UK equity market was the underperformer in the region, despite the success of the vaccine rollout so far. Regional divergence reflected index sector skews; value and basic resources weighed on the UK FTSE 100 Index, whilst Italy’s utilities exposure saw the FTSE MIB Index outperform, alongside further stimulus announcements with new Prime Minister Mario Draghi taking charge.

The FTSE 250 Index fared better than the FTSE 100 Index, with its re-opening ‘brick and mortar’ skew. Whilst the European value trade may have paused for breath last week, the divergence between global growth and value stocks remains at historically elevated levels, suggesting that the rotation still has the potential to run further.

Looking at US sectors, there were again a number of moving parts. The best-performing sectors were consumer discretionary (reopening hopes) and utilities (bounce for renewables after recent weakness). The cyclical materials and industrials spaces were also strong amid the passing of the US$1.9 trillion stimulus package. Energy was a relative underperformer, with WTI crude oil pausing for breath on higher US inventories and (again) China’s move to curb its exuberant stimulus provisions.

From a factor perspective, US momentum was higher last week vs. US value, although this does not do justice to some of the whipsaw moves we saw through the week.

ECB Ramps Up Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) Purchases

Last Thursday, we heard from the ECB, and the central bank made it clear it was uneasy about the recent rise in yields and would proactively accelerate its quantitative easing (QE) purchases ‘at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year’. Since the start of the year, the ECB has adopted an estimated €18 billion-per-week rate. We can expect more detail on exactly what ‘significantly higher’ means in coming days, but it’s important to note that the central bank stressed that the size of the program will not be increased, just the speed.

The announcement had the desired effect, with European government bond yields moving lower and the bond market feeling more orderly. The spread between the German 10-year bund and Italian 10-year BTP also tightened and the euro traded up over 40 basis points (bps) despite the dovish tone.

The macro picture was not dramatically different from what the central bank was forecasting late last year, but subdued inflation was a focus for many. The last quarter of 2020 was not as bad as feared, but 2021 has started on a weaker footing; the ECB is now expecting gross domestic product (GDP) to decline by 0.4% in the first quarter vs. the fourth quarter. Notably, strong growth is still expected during the second and third quarter, with the recovery just delayed somewhat.

Looking further out, GDP at the end of 2023 is forecast to be about 0.5% higher than previously assumed. The ECB reflected this by nudging its core inflation forecast higher for 2023 (from 1.2% to 1.3%). Compared to ‘normal times’, however, this is still 0.3-0.5% lower than what the ECB would forecast for core inflation three years out. This implies that the macro backdrop has not improved significantly enough to warrant the recent rise in yields. The magnitude of the recovery will need to surprise to the upside for several consecutive quarters in order for inflation forecasts to move high enough to justify accepting significantly higher borrowing costs.

Of course, there remains some tension within the governing council, with disagreement on the tolerance for higher yields. With this, the situation remains fragile and will inevitably need to be revisited later this year.

Week in Review

United States

Last week saw a strong performance from US equity indices, with the S&P 500 Index testing highs again, up2.9% on the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 4.1% and the Nasdaq up 3.1%. Familiar themes drove market performance, with bond yields, stimulus, reflation/reopening and central bank policy dominating market narrative. A notable feature through the week was aggressive sector and factor rotation that ebbed and flowed from day to day. The US 10-year Treasury yield edged to new 52-week highs, up 5.9bps at 1.63% on the week.

We also saw significant rotation out of bonds and into equities.

Stimulus: With the US$1.9 trillion stimulus package signed off by President Joe Biden last week, we saw focus turn to the impact of this on the US economy and markets. Of note, US$402 billion will be distributed to individuals in US$1,400 cheques that are now being sent out. Some of this will likely be invested in the markets in coming weeks. We have already seen some retail favorites pushing higher, with Bitcoin trading at new all times highs above US$60,000, TESLA bouncing back to trade +16% last week, and the Goldman Sachs Retail Basket +6.4% on the week. Some of this was likely be pre-positioning in anticipation of the stimulus impact—the power of retail investing cannot be underestimated.

Another debate around the stimulus is its impact on US inflation. However, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen played down this risk, stating price pressure remains subdued: ‘I think there’s a small risk and I think it’s manageable’. In addition, some economists don’t see the fiscal package causing runaway inflation, as some individuals may not spend their stimulus cheques right away, but elect to put the money into savings instead.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy: This Wednesday’s Fed meeting will be a significant event for markets. While there was no fresh Fed commentary last week as it was in the comment blackout period ahead of the meeting, there was much speculation around what to expect. No change to interest rates is expected, but we get updated economic projections from the Fed, which could have an impact on its ‘dot plot’, i.e., the path of future interest-rate increases. We could see market volatility, and moves in Treasury yields will be closely watched. Many see a US 10-year yield of 1.75% as problematic for equities (particularly ‘bond proxy’ yield plays).

Recall the Fed’s current wording on its rate policy is it ‘expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until…and inflation has risen to two percent and is on track to moderately exceed two percent for some time’. Market expectations (based on a survey of economists) project two quarter-point hikes in 2023.

Europe

European stocks closing last week up 3.5%, with equity markets continuing to take direction from global credit markets for now. As mentioned, bond yields moved lower, and it was some of the year-to-date winners which lost out as defensives outperformed.

Despite the moves in equity markets last week, the reopening of economies around Europe remains at a precarious stage. Infection rates in the eurozone are on the increase, albeit stabilising in Germany, France and the Netherlands, and continuing to fall in Spain. In Italy, there has been a notable rise in new cases over the last month and Prime Minister Mario Draghi stated that Italy was facing a ‘new wave’, which has led to the announcement of stricter lockdown measures around the country. Any region registering over 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants will be placed in the strictest lockdown with bars, restaurants and schools closing. During the Easter holidays, all of Italy will be placed in automatic shutdown.

The picture continues to improve in the United Kingdomwith infection rates continuing to fall despite test intensity hitting new highs. Hospitalisations are also falling in the United Kingdom as the country forges on with its vaccination programme.

Last week, questions were raised in Europe about possible side effects of the Astrazeneca vaccine. Many countries around Europe suspended the use of the vaccine after reports some recipients experienced blood clots. The decision to suspend the use of the vaccine was a precautionary onewhilst the World Health Organisation (WHO) and Astrazeneca claimed there was no link. With the concerns over the slow vaccine rollout and its impact on growth prospects, Europe only saw muted equity inflows versus other regions globally.

German politics received some focus over the weekend following two state elections. Support for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party fell to historic lows, with a number of drivers. A kickback scandal in the CDU/Christlich-Soziale Union (CSU) parliamentary faction in Berlin, discontent over slow vaccination progress, and criticism over the management of lockdowns amidst rising infections have all seemingly curtailed support for the conservatives. Now questions have been raised around whether or not this sets the tone for the federal elections due in September this year.

The CDU/CSU remain the favourites; however, the results of the state elections have increased conversations on alternatives. Armin Laschet was appointed new leader of the CDU, but his rival Markus Söder from the CSU is more popular with voters, so may be a more suitable candidate to replace Angela Merkel as chancellor later this year. Whilst the poor performance in the state elections cannot be attributed necessarily to Laschet, the first two months have been far from smooth, and he may decide it is appropriate to step aside for Söder.

Brexit was back in focus last week with the release of export/import data. The report showed a dramatic impact on UK exports to the European Union (EU), down 40% month-on-month in January. Imports from the EU also fell dramatically, down 28.8%. Whilst some of the drop was likely due to stockpiling effects ahead of January switching and pandemic-related restrictions, the report is a worrying sign.

Whilst the overall goods trade balance with the EU slightly improved in January, this is no consolation given the sizeable loss of business caused by the sudden collapse in UK-EU commerce. Although trade should rebound somewhat in February and March, the latest report shows that UK-EU trade may remain below pre-Brexit levels for a long time to come. Some observers say this could change with improved administration on the implementation of the new UK-EU border.

APAC

Asian equities were mixed last week, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index managing to close the week up 0.9%. Sector performance in Asia was relatively mixed. Like in the United States and Europe, utilities were market leaders, while industrials and materials were also higher. Energy stocks and communications services were the only two sectors that declined last week.

Chinese equities fell for a third straight week, with the Shanghai Composite closing the week down 1.4% after an early slump due to concerns about the imminent curbing of stimulus. Stockpiles of iron ore at Chinese ports have risen to their highest level since May 2019, which could signal slowing production; iron ore prices fell by 4.6% on the week. Other data was more positive, as Chinese January-February exports surged, jumping 61% in US-dollar terms. The surge, while skewed because of the comparison to a locked down economy from last year, reflects strong global demand and was well above expectations. Imports also grew, climbing 22.2% in the first two months of the year from a year earlier.

The Hang Seng Index also lagged on the week, down 1.2%. Investor demand has been hit again after China’s national legislature approved electoral changes that would put pro-Beijing loyalists firmly in charge of Hong Kong.

US-China relations were back in focus after a top Chinese diplomat urged the United States to stop ‘crossing lines and playing with fire’ on Taiwan, as part of a broad series of warnings to President Biden against meddling in Beijing’s affairs. China Foreign Minister Wang Yi said there was ‘no room for compromise or concessions’ in China’s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan.

Week Ahead

Monetary policy decisions dominate this week’s calendar, with the Fed centre-stage on Wednesday. We also hear from policymakers in the United Kingdom, Japan, Norway and Russia. Looking at data releases, a second reading of the euro-area consumer price index (CPI) will be in focus, along with Tuesday’s German ZEW reading. Outside of this, the WHO is scheduled to release a report on the origins of COVID-19 this week.

Monday 15 March 

  • Eurogroup & Ecofin meeting (Monday and Tuesday)
  • Key speakers: ECB’s Mario Centeno

Tuesday 16 March

  • France CPI
  • Italy CPI EU harmonised
  • Germany ZEW financial market survey (March)
  • US manufacturing production

Wednesday 17 March

  • Eurozone EU27 new car registrations
  • Spain trade balance
  • Eurozone CPI & construction output
  • EU Commission unveils its proposal for vaccine passports
  • The Netherlands holds a general election for the 150-seat lower house of parliament
  • International Energy Agency’s monthly oil market report
  • US Federal Open Market Committee meeting and projections

Thursday 18 March

  • Italy trade balance total
  • Eurozone trade balance
  • UK Bank of England policy meeting and interest-rate decision
  • Policy meetings/rate decisions: Norway, Indonesia, Taiwan, Norway, Turkey, Egypt
  • Key speakers: ECB’s de Luis Guindos and Isabel Schnabel; BoE’s Andy Haldane and Jon Cunliffe
  • US jobless claims

Friday 19 March

  • Germany
  • UK public finances
  • Bank of Japan monetary policy decision; Governor Haruhiko Kuroda briefing
  • Russia rate decision
  • The US China Economic and Security Review Commission presents its annual report to Congress on the national security implications of the economic relationship between the US and China

 


Franklin Templeton Key risks & Disclaimers:

What Are the Risks?

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. Bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. Thus, as prices of bonds in an investment portfolio adjust to a rise in interest rates, the value of the portfolio may decline. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in developing markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with their relatively small size and lesser liquidity. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance.

This article reflects the analysis and opinions of Franklin Templeton’s European Trading Desk as of 15th March 2021, and may vary from the analysis and opinions of other investment teams, platforms, portfolio managers or strategies at Franklin Templeton. Because market and economic conditions are often subject to rapid change, the analysis and opinions provided may change without notice. An assessment of a particular country, market, region, security, investment or strategy is not intended as an investment recommendation, nor does it constitute investment advice. Statements of fact are from sources considered reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their completeness or accuracy. This article does not provide a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry or security. Nothing in this document may be relied upon as investment advice or an investment recommendation. The companies named herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton. Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction. 

Issued by Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited (FTIML) Registered office: Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6HL. FTIML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.


MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited (FTIML). No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment and may be deducted from the invested amount therefore lowering the size of your investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Document (KIID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

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