Market Update by Liontrust – Q1 2022

Liontrust GF High Yield Bond Fund is manufactured by Liontrust Fund Partners LLP and represented in Malta by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

Market review

Emerging from a period of such extreme market support was always going to be turbulent for capital markets. The pace at which monetary policy tightens is also being dictated by the rise and stubbornness of inflation, with it now pretty clear central bankers were behind the curve with the transitory rhetoric of 2021. Add to all this, war in Europe, with geopolitics turning the last three decades on its head. Risk premia clearly had to re-price to this new world.

With this backdrop, despite negative returns, high yield has been fairly resilient. The worst of the drawdown during the quarter was half that of the S&P 500 and much less than more growth-oriented measures like the NASDAQ. Meanwhile, if you had chosen to invest in gilts, you would have lost 7.5% in the quarter.

The outperformance of low-quality bonds has continued in Q1 2022. On one hand, this doesn’t make a huge amount of sense given the spectre of stagflation; on the other, CCC rated bonds are skewed towards metals and energy, which will benefit from the enormous commodity price inflation we’re seeing as a result of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. To be clear, the outperformance of low quality has been marginal in this quarter. We continue to dislike the asymmetric risks, maintaining our structural preference for high quality.

Fund review

Over the quarter, the Liontrust GF High Yield Bond Fund (A1, accumulation class, total return in euros) produced a return of -4.6% versus the ICE BAML Global High Yield index’s (euro hedged) -5.8%*.

Around one-third of the outperformance versus index is from the real estate sector, where we have not owned distressed Chinese real estate bonds. We have kept close to developments in the sector, but we have generally found it too opaque to invest.

Another sector which proved useful to avoid was leisure. With a concentration in airlines and cruising lines, rising energy costs is becoming a thematic risk. With this in mind, we switched part of our holding in Ardagh Packaging into the metal can subsidiary from the part of the group more exposed to glass packaging. Glass packaging is more energy intensive, although we believe Ardagh Group has more than enough resilience and pricing power in order to adapt.

During a period of broad market sell-off, there were few individual bonds that added material outperformance on their own. However, stock-picking collectively added around one-third to the outperformance versus index. Obviously, there are exceptions as not every decision can always go our way: the Fund’s holding in Bausch Health bonds detracted from stock-picking, for example, costing the Fund around 10bps. Sentiment towards Bausch has been poor since it announced a more aggressive financial policy. We have reduced the Fund’s holding size, but believe the company has enough strength in its core business and strategic flexibility to survive intact in the medium to long term.

During the quarter, portfolio activity has been relatively modest, although we have taken opportunities to switch bonds which have sold off less into bonds which have sold off more. An example of this was reducing our holding in CCC-rated Howden at the same price it traded in December and buying subordinated bonds issued by BBB-rated Telefonica ten points below the December level.

Since the start of the 2021, we’ve managed the Fund with some hedges in place designed to protect returns in a rising interest rate environment. In Q1 2022, these hedges gained the Fund ~30bps.

Outlook

There is plenty in the world to worry about, but we don’t believe there is a material risk of a systemic rise in default rates. Of course, in a world of both higher interest rates and energy prices, profits and cash flow will be squeezed, but we believe there is enough quality and resilience in the high yield market to continue to make good risk-adjusted returns in this type of environment. This applies to BB-rated and B-rated bonds although, spoiler alert, we don’t think this is the case in CCC-rated bonds!

US high yield spreads are still below the long-term average, but with the number of interest rate hikes priced into US government bonds, the overall yield is in line with the long-term average. Given the likely resilience the US economy has to continued conflict in Europe, we think US high yield is decent value.

However, with European spreads above the long-term average, we also like valuations in Europe. The Fund is split fairly evenly between US and Europe (including the UK), which in an index context represents a large European overweight. The Fund has light exposure to cyclicals and companies with high energy costs of production. We have zero airlines, which are so exposed to fuel costs. The quality bias we have within our process means we are light in CCC-rated risk, which is only 5% of Fund. Moreover, our quality bias means we seek companies with pricing power and resilience, two operational qualities that are the best defence in more difficult economic periods.


Liontrust Key risks & Disclaimers:

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Do remember that the value of an investment and the income generated from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed, therefore, you may not get back the amount originally invested and potentially risk total loss of capital. The issue of units/shares in Liontrust Funds may be subject to an initial charge, which will have an impact on the realisable value of the investment, particularly in the short term. Investments should always be considered as long term.

Investment in the GF High Yield Bond Fund involves foreign currencies and may be subject to fluctuations in value due to movements in exchange rates. The value of fixed income securities will fall if the issuer is unable to repay its debt or has its credit rating reduced. Generally, the higher the perceived credit risk of the issuer, the higher the rate of interest. Bond markets may be subject to reduced liquidity. The Fund may invest in emerging markets/soft currencies and in financial derivative instruments, both of which may have the effect of increasing volatility.

Issued by Liontrust Fund Partners LLP (2 Savoy Court, London WC2R 0EZ), authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 518165) to undertake regulated investment business.

This document should not be construed as advice for investment in any product or security mentioned, an offer to buy or sell units/shares of Funds mentioned, or a solicitation to purchase securities in any company or investment product. Examples of stocks are provided for general information only to demonstrate our investment philosophy. It contains information and analysis that is believed to be accurate at the time of publication, but is subject to change without notice. Whilst care has been taken in compiling the content of this document, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Liontrust as to its accuracy or completeness, including for external sources (which may have been used) which have not been verified. It should not be copied, faxed, reproduced, divulged or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Liontrust. Always research your own investments and (if you are not a professional or a financial adviser) consult suitability with a regulated financial adviser before investing.


MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from Liontrust Fund Partners LLP. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Document (KIID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

Blue Whale Update: Stagflation: Look for the Holy Trinity

Stephen Yiu - Blue Whale Fund Manager

 

Stephen Yiu is the Chief Investment Officer at Blue Whale Capital and Lead Manager of the Blue Whale Growth Fund.

Stephen co-founded Blue Whale Capital with Peter Hargreaves, co-founder of Hargreaves Lansdown, in 2016. The Blue Whale Growth Fund was launched in September 2020 and is a long-only global equity fund focusing on developed markets.

Stephen adopts a high conviction, active approach based on
bottom-up, fundamental research.

When we look over the last few months there has been a plethora of news surrounding rising prices. From food to fuel, everyday essentials are costing more. Conversely, there has been little talk of rising wages to combat this. Some altruistic companies may offer to raise wages in line with the headline rate of inflation, but few will be offering rises beyond this as the possible squeeze on profits from rising costs of doing business, cause management to be more cautious.

Inflation, both good and bad

When we think about inflation, it is important to look at what is considered good and bad inflation – the Bank of England aims for a small amount of inflation of roughly 2% per annum, so it can’t be all bad! Good inflation can simply be defined as wage increases. As people’s disposable income increases, their discretionary spend goes up, and money is circulated round the economy delivering economic growth. Bad inflation is where the price of essential goods and services increases (usually due to a shortage of supply) decreasing the amount of discretionary spend for the consumer. Essential goods and services are quite often produced from outside one’s home economy and therefore the essential spend is not recirculated internally leading to little or no economic growth. 

Stagflation is the situation we find ourselves in presently – a triumvirate of economic malaise where bad inflation (essential price rises) is taking hold whilst good inflation (wage increases) is lagging at best (and lacking at worst), and economic growth is slowing.

Investors and savers will of course be worried. Those with high cash deposits will be seeing their savings eroded by a few percent a year (inflation is approaching 10% this year), whilst investors will be wondering what the best options are for their portfolio as companies struggle with the rising costs of doing business.

Look to the margin

As the cost of doing business rises, it would make sense to look at those companies whose external costs (that are out of their control) remain comparatively low compared to their total revenue. One way we can filter these companies is by looking at their gross margin – this is the total sales, less costs of production. Those companies with a high gross margin can produce their goods with relatively low uncontrollable external costs, thereby making them less susceptible to inflation.

Essential pricing power

Secondly, we need to look at how inflation impacts consumer spend (which accounts for roughly two thirds of a country’s economy with industrial activity and government spending making up the remaining third). As prices rise, and wages remain flat, people’s discretionary spend falls as they focus on the essentials – food and fuel. This means that investors could look for those companies that provide essential goods and services for individuals – one way to spot these companies is to look at their pricing power. The more essential a good or service, the higher the pricing power. If the price increases, the demand for the product is relatively unchanged – a product described as having inelastic demand.

Herein lies the problem. Both food producers/sellers and natural resource companies have large costs of acquirement and production. This, combined with strong competition between the companies in the relative sectors leads to tight margins. So what should investors look for?

Structural growth drivers

With global growth not matching, or even coming near to inflation rates (a key characteristic of stagflation), it is important to look for those companies that are able to benefit from structural changes in the global economy that are not reliant on a buoyant macro-outlook. The most obvious of these is the theme of digital transformation.

Investors beware

One option is to look to those companies that consumers need in the modern world, whilst benefitting from global digital transformation – an interesting example of which is Amazon. But here we would urge caution for investors. The business seems unavoidable, offering the most comprehensive online shopping experience for both food and discretionary spend, whilst also powering many third-party systems and apps through its AWS (Amazon Web Services) cloud computing arm. 

So far so good, but this is where a closer look at the fundamentals is important. Whilst AWS is undoubtedly a tick in the box, Amazon is watered down by the structural challenges facing its retail business. Inflation, already squeezing the margins of its products, also leads to demand from its workforce for increased pay. For what is considered a “tech” business, Amazon has an extraordinarily large low-skilled workforce, necessary for fulfilment in its warehouses. In addition, increased fuel costs affect the cost of delivering online orders. News of unionisation in one of its warehouses in New York should set further alarm bells ringing for potential investors. We would therefore not consider Amazon to be a good bet in this inflationary environment.

A new type of consumer staple?

Fortunately, there are companies in the tech space which contrast favourably with Amazon. One such company is Alphabet, parent company of Google. Like Amazon, Alphabet benefits from the structural growth drivers of digital transformation, where its products are becoming unavoidable in an increasingly online world. 

When you consider the proliferation of services such as Gmail, Google Maps (used by Uber amongst others), Chrome web browser, YouTube and its simple search function, it is likely most people spend a considerable portion of their time interacting with the Alphabet ecosystem on a daily basis. In addition, it has its own cloud computing arm, powering an increasing number of apps and other web-based services – in fact, just the other day I reserved a table at a restaurant through a google booking service I had not seen before! 

Where Alphabet differs from Amazon is key to what makes it a preferable investment. To start with it has 10% of the Amazon workforce (160,000 employees vs. Amazon’s 1.6m) making wage inflation less of an issue. Second, its gross margins are about 70% vs. Amazon at about 40%. This makes Alphabet far less susceptible to external inflationary factors. 

I would go as far as to say there is a new breed of “consumer staple” company that offers unavoidable essentials in an increasingly digital world – Alphabet is one such example, but Microsoft could also be included here thanks to its ubiquitous tools for both home and work computing.

Opportunity abounds

Despite the defensive properties offered by companies such as Alphabet and Microsoft against stagflation, these companies have seen a fall in their share price over the past few months.

The fundamental reasoning behind buying these companies has not worsened – in fact, it has likely improved due to the reasons provided above. But, due to the contagion of economic malaise, and low-quality tech businesses seeing a deserved markdown. This has tainted the tech sector as a whole, resulting in the fall of high-quality tech companies’ share prices, offering brave investors an opportunity.

Whilst the share prices may have fallen back in the short-term, high-quality businesses such as Alphabet and Microsoft continue to forge ahead by providing unavoidable goods and services, generating reliable cashflow, and innovating to save costs for those people and companies that are looking beyond the economic malaise of the moment. 

This holy trinity of providing essential goods and services (and therefore pricing power), with a high gross margin and benefitting from structural growth drivers is where we prefer to be invested in the Blue Whale Growth Fund.

Blue Whale Growth Fund is manufactured by Blue Whale Capital LLP and represented in Malta by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

 


Blue Whale Key Risks & Disclaimers:

The Blue Whale Growth Fund was launched in September 2020. All references to actions before this date relate to the LF Blue Whale Growth Fund.  Information on the LF Blue Whale Growth Fund is provided for comparison purposes only; it is a UK UCITS which is not registered for sale in nor is it promoted to investors in the EEA.  Whilst the investment objectives and charges are not identical, both funds are run on the same investment process.

Please note that the information provided in this article is not to be construed as advice and any views we express on holdings do not constitute investment recommendations and must not be viewed as such. If you are unsure as to the suitability of an investment for your circumstances, please seek independent financial advice. Investments can go down in value as well as up so you may get back less than you invested. Your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.Blue Whale Capital LLP is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

There are significant risks associated with investment in the Fund referred to herein. Investment in the Fund is intended for investors who understand and can accept the risks associated with such an investment including potentially a substantial or complete loss of their investment.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income derived from them can go down as well as up and the value of your investment may be volatile and be subject to sudden and substantial falls.

Investment in a Fund with exposure to emerging markets involves risk factors and special considerations which may not be typically associated with investing in more developed markets. Political or economic change and instability may be more likely to occur and have a greater effect on the economies and markets of emerging countries. Adverse government policies, taxation, restrictions on foreign investment and on currency convertibility and repatriation, currency fluctuations and other developments in the laws and regulations of emerging countries in which investment may be made, including expropriation, nationalisation or other confiscation could result in loss to the Fund.

Income from investments may fluctuate. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of investments. Fund charges may be applied in whole or part to capital, which may result in capital erosion. The Authorised Corporate Director may apply a dilution adjustment as detailed in the Prospectus. The Fund is not traded on an exchange or recognised market.

The foregoing list of risk factors is not complete, and reference should be made to the Fund’s Prospectus, KIID and application form.


MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from Blue Whale Growth Fund. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Document (KIID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

Franklin Templeton Insights: Should Investors “Buy the Dip” in a Time of Geopolitical Crisis?

Many market pundits have advocated a strategy of “buying the dip” after significant selloffs, but does it always make sense to do so? Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions’ Gene Podkaminer and Miles Sampson explore market reactions to geopolitical events and caution against celebrating the success of this strategy too soon.   

Equity markets year-to-date have been marked by volatility. At first, markets fell as inflation forced major central banks to acknowledge the need to raise rates quicker than anticipated. Along with intense human suffering, the Russian invasion of Ukraine also brought heightened uncertainty, major sanctions and policy shifts, as well as commodity supply shortages. In the past few weeks, markets have partially rebounded, and investors are wondering what comes next.

Key Points

  • There is no “one size fits all” geopolitical playbook for asset allocation. While “buy-the-dip” is a popular mantra, we have found equity and commodity performance to be inconsistent following geopolitical events.
  • Our framework for thinking through geopolitical events is to consider the potential duration and regional impact. Global and long-lasting events have a higher probability of being disruptive for assets.
  • In our view, the Russia/Ukraine war qualifies as a global geopolitical event with long-term implications.
  • The macro backdrop is also an important consideration. Today, we see a macro environment that is becoming more precarious for risky assets.
  • Our analysis of asset performance following geopolitical events, alongside a deteriorating macro context, lead us to prefer a nimble and cautious approach to risk assets.

What Is the Geopolitical Playbook for Asset Allocators?

As global developed equity markets have rallied approximately 6% from their lows in early March, the popular investment mantra, “buy the dip”, has gained traction, particularly as it relates to investment strategy around geopolitical events. We would caution against celebrating the success of this strategy too soon. When analysing a broad array of geopolitical events, it’s clear that asset performance can vary significantly in the year following a geopolitical event.

There are several reasons why performance may vary following a geopolitical event. First, many types of events are classified as geopolitical, from unpredictable terrorist attacks, to political regime changes, local land disputes, and global wars. Most of these crises have included a horrifying human element but are otherwise distinct, and took place amidst disparate political and macroeconomic contexts.

Our asset-allocation framework for thinking through heterogenous geopolitical events is to consider the potential duration and regional impact. Global and long-lasting events have a higher probability of disrupting economic supply and demand, and thus, asset performance. Our analysis suggests that many geopolitical events are local and short-term in nature. Some events have a global or long-term influence, and only a few are both global and long-term in nature. The table below provides a visual example of this framework.

Where does the Ukraine war fit? While the fighting is currently confined to territory between Russia and Ukraine, the reach of the war is global. Coordinated sanctions from Western economies, including the United States and Europe, have broadened the repercussions of this war. The rise in commodity prices, affecting many different sectors, also has a global reach.

While the duration of the war is uncertain, it has already lasted longer than many observers expected. And we believe there are many long-term implications which will continue to play out well after the violence subsides. This war has exposed Europe’s energy dependence on Russia and has accelerated its shift away from Russian energy. Investments into alternative forms of energy, especially green energy, are being accelerated as a result. Geopolitically, the war has further unified NATO countries and increased the divide between Russia and its allies. Secularly, the reorientation of globalisation is likely to accelerate. For instance, the steady mantra of just-in-time inventories may be recast as just-in-case.

The Macro Backdrop

Another reason for performance dispersion is that the macro backdrop varies substantially across historic geopolitical events. Our analysis suggests that the macro starting point matters (a lot)— geopolitics can often accelerate macro trends that were already underway.

This is an important consideration today, where we are expecting growth to slow to trend levels amidst a challenging inflationary environment. The Ukraine war has intensified both trends. Inflation pressures are not only increasing from higher energy prices, but Russia and Ukraine also play an important role in global supply chains that will impact production of food, semiconductors, autos, and more. Higher inflation is stunting consumer confidence across the world and lowering real purchasing power. Ultimately, this should amplify the slowdown in growth.

Alongside the challenging growth and inflation mix, we believe the monetary policy outlook is becoming more precarious. Outside of China and Japan, nearly every major central bank is expected to tighten policy rates by year-end—in many places significantly. The recent Federal Reserve communications continue to support a more hawkish future stance.

Implications for Multi-Asset Portfolios

Our analysis of asset returns following geopolitical events, along with the deteriorating macro backdrop, has led our team to reduce our bullishness over the past month. We continue to disfavour European equities relative to their North American counterparts, where energy exposure is more positive and trade less disrupted by the war. Emerging market equities remain vulnerable, in our opinion, as they bear the brunt of many supply chain shocks alongside weak growth dynamics in China.

In fixed income, we prefer less duration exposure in developed government bonds. Similarly in credit, we prefer asset classes with less duration, such as high yield and bank loans. We find some value in hard-currency emerging market debt and still favor exposure to Chinese government bonds, where policy easing remains out of sync with other major regions. Moving forward, the uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine war and its aftershocks, coupled with a challenging inflationary background, leaves us carefully assessing where we take risks in our portfolios.


Franklin Templeton Key risks & Disclaimers:

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This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice.

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user.

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What are the risks?

All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETF shares may be bought or sold throughout the day at their market price on the exchange on which they are listed. ETFs trade like stocks, fluctuate in market value and may trade above or below the ETF’s net asset value. However, there can be no guarantee that an active trading market for ETF shares will be developed or maintained or that their listing will continue or remain unchanged. While the shares of ETFs are tradable on secondary markets, they may not readily trade in all market conditions and may trade at significant discounts in periods of market stress.



MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited (FTIML). No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Document (KIID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

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