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BlackRock Commentary: Policy revolution’s long reach

The powerful policy revolution implies a lower future path of interest rates than markets are pricing in, even amid rising inflation over the medium term, as captured in BlackRock’s new nominal investment theme. Lower rates – even compared to their previous expectations – lift expected returns across asset classes over the strategic horizon and reinforcing BlackRock’s preference for equities over bonds.

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BlackRock Commentary: Gauging geopolitical risks

Market attention to geopolitical risks has fallen to four-year lows. BlackRock believe this is justified, as investors appear more focused on the economic restart and inflation outlook and less concerned about geopolitics since the change in U.S. administration. Yet it’s worth watching specific risks as flareups can catch investors off guard when attention is low.

BlackRock Commentary: Don’t be surprised by surprising data

Hotter inflation has materialized and market volatility is rising as the economic restart gathers pace. This is playing out in line with BlackRock’s view that the economy is in a “restart” – not a traditional recovery. BlackRock prefer to look through any volatility and see a later “lift-off” from zero rates than markets expect. This means higher-than-expected inflation in the medium term, and underpins their pro-risk stance.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Franklin Templeton

Last week was unsteady for equity markets with much of the focus on inflation data our of the United States and China. A further easing of restrictions in parts of the UK and Europe will help build the recovery.

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BlackRock Commentary: Mind the (rate expectation) gap

Markets are pricing in a liftoff from near-zero policy rates as early as next year, even though the Fed through its new framework has committed to stay behind the curve on inflation. BlackRock caution against extrapolating too much from strong near-term activity data amid a powerful restart. BlackRock see a high bar for the Fed to change its policy stance and believe this may be underappreciated by markets.

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