Equities globally were lacklustre last week, with Europe underperforming amid a position-driven selloff. Outside of the obvious continuing focus on the pandemic and vaccine rollouts, there was little in the way of broad market themes, which in turn saw focus shifting to technical factors and company specifics amidst the first-quarter earnings season.
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Blackrock see the economic restart and greater stability in U.S. government bond yields – as indicated by their new nominal theme – supporting emerging market assets over coming months. These valuations appear relatively attractive in a world of low yields after a choppy start to the year. Risks to Blackrock’s view include potential policy tightening and sluggish vaccine rollouts in some EMs.
The spread of COVID-19 infections in continental Europe and how governments are managing it continues to contribute heavily to the market push and pull we’ve seen in recent weeks and months.
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Oil and industrial metals have rallied since late-2020 on expectations for a swift economic restart, sparking talk of a new commodity “supercycle.” BlackRock sees a more nuanced outlook – with a divergence across different commodities. The lift for oil from the economic restart is likely to be transitory, while some metals may benefit from structural trends such as the “green” transition for years to come, in their view.
Equities in the United States and Europe continued their grind higher in a holiday-shortened week, which led to lighter volumes and newflow last week. There were concerns over rising COVID-19 cases in a number of countries.
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The powerful economic restart has led to a rally in the traditional energy sector. This has raised concerns that sustainable assets may face pressure after stellar performance in 2020. BlackRock view such a short-term focus as misguided. The power of the near-term restart should not be confused with the slow transition to sustainability that BlackRock see driving long-term returns.
The Group has remained resilient and operates with strong capital and liquidity ratios, well in excess of regulatory requirements.
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