News & Updates

This week features a light economic data calendar alongside a Fed blackout period, with key events including Japan’s GDP, US CPI, and eurozone inflation, while US lawmakers face a critical deadline to avert a government shutdown. Last week, weaker-than-expected US data fueled stagflation concerns, leading to market volatility, a decline in the dollar, and a drop in equities, while China’s policymakers signaled targeted stimulus amid ongoing disinflationary pressures.

Market volatility is being driven by macro and foreign policy shifts alongside structural forces like AI, making tactical positioning crucial as AI’s impact on corporate earnings becomes more uncertain, with private markets playing a key role.

Markets focus on global PMIs, central bank decisions, and trade tensions this week, with key events including the ECB rate decision, US employment data, and China’s National People’s Congress, while last week saw US Treasury yields fall, equities rebound, and China adopt a more accommodative monetary stance amid tariff concerns.

European stocks have outperformed U.S. equities in early 2025, leading BlackRock to close their underweight stance on Europe amid potential catalysts for valuation gains, yet they remain overweight U.S. stocks, expecting strong corporate earnings and AI-driven growth to sustain U.S. market leadership while increasing their underweight on long-term U.S. Treasuries.

This week’s focus includes key data releases like eurozone CPI, US consumer confidence, and GDP, while corporate earnings, notably Nvidia’s, and central bank commentary from the ECB and Fed will steer market sentiment, following a risk-off week spurred by disappointing retail sales and rising inflation expectations.