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Epic Investment Partners Views: The Week Ahead

The first full week of November brings with it the usual torrent of economic data from both sides of the Atlantic, offering crucial insights into the health of the global economy. US factory orders are expected to show continued weakness, with forecasts pointing to a 0.5% decline in September. Durable goods orders are also anticipated to remain in negative territory. However, some glimmers of hope emerge from the services sector, with the ISM Services Index expected to show continued expansion, albeit at a slightly slower pace. 

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. With inflation showing signs of easing, the market is widely anticipating a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing the upper bound to 4.75%. This would mark the second consecutive rate cut, signalling the Fed’s commitment to supporting economic growth. However, the Fed’s forward guidance will be closely scrutinised for any hints about the future trajectory of interest rates. 

Across the Atlantic, Europe’s former economic powerhouse, Germany, continues to grapple with industrial weakness. Factory orders are expected to rebound in September, but the year-on-year figures are likely to remain in negative territory. Industrial production is also forecast to contract, adding to concerns about the country’s manufacturing sector. The HCOB Composite PMI (compiled by S&P Global), a key gauge of business activity, is expected to remain below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, indicating ongoing challenges for the German economy. 

In France, the economic picture appears equally subdued, with industrial production expected to show a modest decline. More significantly, the country’s trade deficit remains a concern, and the government’s fiscal position is under pressure. The upcoming release of the French budget balance figures will be closely watched by investors to see how much more it has deteriorated from the current EUR 172 billion. Expectations are that France will see a budget deficit of over 6% of GDP this year. 

Meanwhile, in the UK, attention will be focused on the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting. With inflation below the 2% target and economic growth remaining subdued, the central bank is expected to ease by a further 25bps to leave the base rate at 4.75%. However, the Bank’s accompanying statement will be parsed for any clues about its future policy intentions. 

Recent economic data in the UK has been mixed, however this week we may see better data. The S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI is expected to show a slight improvement in October, and the construction PMI points to further expansion but at a slower pace than previously. 

While these economic data releases will undoubtedly generate headlines, it is the upcoming US presidential election that is likely to dominate market sentiment. The outcome of the election could have a profound impact on global economic and political stability. The election outcome could influence everything from trade policy and fiscal stimulus to environmental regulations and healthcare reform. Markets are likely to remain on edge until the results are clear, with any unexpected developments potentially triggering sharp swings in asset prices, hence the recent rise in the VIX Index to around 22. Ultimately, the economic data, while important, may end up being a mere sideshow to the main event: the US presidential election. 


Epic Investment Partner’s Key risks & Disclaimers:

EPIC Global Equity Fund (the “Fund”) is a sub-fund of EPIC Funds p.l.c. (the “Company”), which is an open-ended umbrella fund authorised in Ireland as a UCITS fund and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. This marketing material has been approved in the UK by EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, trading as EPIC Investment Partners, which is a limited liability partnership incorporated and registered in England and Wales under partnership OC306260 with its registered office at Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. EPIC Markets (UK) LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Distribution of this material and the offer of the Fund are specifically restricted in certain jurisdictions. In particular, but without limitation, neither this material nor shares in the Fund are available to US persons.

This document is for general information purposes only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. It is not a personal recommendation and it should not be regarded as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any shares in the Fund. This document represents the views of EPIC Investment Partners at the time of writing. It should not be construed as investment advice. Any person interested in investing in the Fund should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the Fund and should consult their own professional tax, accounting or other advisers as to the risks involved in making such an investment. Full details of the Fund’s investment objectives, investment policy and risks are set out in the Fund’s Prospectus and Supplement which, together with the Key Information Document (“KID”), are available on request and free of charge from Maples Fund Services (Ireland) Limited, 32 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2, Ireland and, in the UK, from EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. Any offering of the Fund is only made on the terms of the current Prospectus, Supplement and KID. A subscription in the Fund can only be made after the provision of the KIID and should be made solely upon the information contained in the Prospectus, Supplement and KID.

An investment in the Fund is not suitable for an investor who cannot sustain a loss on their investment. There is no guarantee of the Fund’s future performance and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of your investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the money you invested. The risks associated with making an investment in the Fund are described in the Prospectus and Supplement but investors should note, in particular, the following: 1) Foreign currency denominated investments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have a positive or an adverse effect on an investor’s returns. There is also a risk that currency hedging transactions for one share class may in extreme cases adversely affect the net asset value of the other share classes within the same sub-fund since there is no legal segregation between share classes; 2) The Fund is subject to the risk of the insolvency of its counterparties; and 3) Emerging market securities are subject to greater social, political, regulatory, and currency risks than developed market securities. This may impact the liquidity and value of such securities and, consequently, the value of the Fund.


MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from EPIC Investment Partners. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document is intended for retail clients however, it may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Information Document (KID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

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