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Epic Investment Partners Views: The Week Ahead

Inflation prints around the world will garner market focus this week, as will the COP 29 climate conference and earnings reports from Chinese e-commerce giants. A fairly quiet start to the week with US markets shut for Veterans Day today. UK employment figures are due on Tuesday, and we will hear from the Fed’s Waller, and ECB’s Rehn. US CPI takes centre stage on Wednesday, current estimates are a 0.2%mom and 0.3%mom increase in the headline and core prints, with the year-on-year figures forecast at 2.6% and 3.3%, respectively. Also on Wednesday, the Fed’s Schmid and Logan speak at an energy conference, while their counterpart Musalem discusses the US economy and monetary policy. Eurozone GDP and US PPI and jobless claims readings follow on Thursday, and we have Walt Disney’s earnings. Central bank chatter includes the Fed’s Powell, Williams and ECB Schnabel and BoE’s Bailey. China’s retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment, the UK’s GDP and industrial production, and US retail sales, Empire manufacturing and industrial production end the week.  

Last week markets experienced a whirlwind amid the US presidential elections and the FOMC meeting. Global bonds witnessed a sharp sell-off as market concerns of a Trump-fuelled deficit and inflation risks ramped up. However, bonds settled into the end of the week. The yield on the 10-year fell 8bps to 4.31%, the benchmark traded as high as 4.48% during the week. Meanwhile, the S&P Index rallied 4.66%, to new all-time highs. The dollar also gained momentum following Trump’s unexpected early win, the DXY Index was up 0.69%. 

The FOMC voted to cut rates by 25bps. The unanimous vote to ease rates to a range of 4.50-4.75%, was widely expected. The Committee struck a balanced tone, stating “The economic outlook is uncertain, and the committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.” Powell described the latest rate cut as a “further recalibration”, warning of dual risks: aggressive cuts could threaten inflation progress, whilst excessive caution risks dampening economic activity unnecessarily.  

Earlier the Bank of England delivered a hawkish cut of 25bps to 4.75%, in an 8-1 vote, the outlier preferred to hold at 5%. The central bank reiterated that “a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate.” Bank Governor Andrew Bailey also noted rates were likely to “continue to fall” but that they could not be cut “too quickly or by too much.” The BoE warned that the measures announced in Autumn Budget 2024 expected to boost the level of GDP and CPI inflation. The bank now sees inflation rising by 0.5%, more than previously forecast, to hit a high of around 2.75% next year before falling back to its 2% target. Growth, meanwhile, could rise a further 0.75% in a year’s time. 

Over the weekend China’s consumer prices maintained positive growth at 0.3%mom. This modest increase comes alongside Beijing’s proactive monetary policies and fresh government initiatives to boost domestic spending. Factory-gate prices fell below expectations, but this could, however, enhance China’s export competitiveness in global markets. The latest measures announced at the NPC gathering included a comprehensive plan to manage local government debt, notably, a CNY10tn five-year package to address “hidden debt”. Though market response was tepid, these measures are crucial for local governments to implement stimulus and maintain growth. This matters as China could face weaker external demand in 2025 and needs to strengthen domestic economic activity through property stabilisation and consumption support. 


Epic Investment Partner’s Key risks & Disclaimers:

EPIC Global Equity Fund (the “Fund”) is a sub-fund of EPIC Funds p.l.c. (the “Company”), which is an open-ended umbrella fund authorised in Ireland as a UCITS fund and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. This marketing material has been approved in the UK by EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, trading as EPIC Investment Partners, which is a limited liability partnership incorporated and registered in England and Wales under partnership OC306260 with its registered office at Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. EPIC Markets (UK) LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Distribution of this material and the offer of the Fund are specifically restricted in certain jurisdictions. In particular, but without limitation, neither this material nor shares in the Fund are available to US persons.

This document is for general information purposes only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. It is not a personal recommendation and it should not be regarded as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any shares in the Fund. This document represents the views of EPIC Investment Partners at the time of writing. It should not be construed as investment advice. Any person interested in investing in the Fund should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the Fund and should consult their own professional tax, accounting or other advisers as to the risks involved in making such an investment. Full details of the Fund’s investment objectives, investment policy and risks are set out in the Fund’s Prospectus and Supplement which, together with the Key Information Document (“KID”), are available on request and free of charge from Maples Fund Services (Ireland) Limited, 32 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2, Ireland and, in the UK, from EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. Any offering of the Fund is only made on the terms of the current Prospectus, Supplement and KID. A subscription in the Fund can only be made after the provision of the KIID and should be made solely upon the information contained in the Prospectus, Supplement and KID.

An investment in the Fund is not suitable for an investor who cannot sustain a loss on their investment. There is no guarantee of the Fund’s future performance and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of your investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the money you invested. The risks associated with making an investment in the Fund are described in the Prospectus and Supplement but investors should note, in particular, the following: 1) Foreign currency denominated investments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have a positive or an adverse effect on an investor’s returns. There is also a risk that currency hedging transactions for one share class may in extreme cases adversely affect the net asset value of the other share classes within the same sub-fund since there is no legal segregation between share classes; 2) The Fund is subject to the risk of the insolvency of its counterparties; and 3) Emerging market securities are subject to greater social, political, regulatory, and currency risks than developed market securities. This may impact the liquidity and value of such securities and, consequently, the value of the Fund.


MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from EPIC Investment Partners. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document is intended for retail clients however, it may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Information Document (KID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

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