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Epic Investment Partners Views: The Week Ahead

This week kicked-off with China’s May economic data, which showed a mixed picture with retail sales beating expectations at 3.7%yoy growth, driven by stronger urban and rural consumption, while industrial output and fixed asset investment missed forecasts, dragged down by a steeper real estate investment decline. The PBoC also held the one-year medium term lending facility at 2.5%, against some expectations for a cut, possibly to maintain currency stability.  

Later today we have the US Empire manufacturing print. Eurozone CPI and US retail sales, business inventories and industrial production figures are due on Tuesday. UK CPI will attract attention on Wednesday, and the US is shut for the Juneteenth holiday. The BoE is expected to hold rates on Thursday. The prelim, June S&P Global PMIs could be of interest on Friday and then we have the US Conf. Board leading index. 

Central bank chatter includes the ECB’s Lane and Klaas, and the Fed’s Harker discusses economic outlook today. The ECB’s Cipollone, Guindos, Villeroy de Galhau speak on Tuesday, and we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin, Logan, Kugler, Musalem, and Goolsbee at separate events. The Fed’s Barkin discusses the economic outlook on Friday. 

There was quite a bit for markets to digest last week, with the softer-than-expected US CPI and PPI prints. Although the dis-inflation trend appears to have resumed, Fed policymakers stressed the need for more evidence of downward momentum before commencing their easing cycle, as such the Fed held rates. The central banks’ quarterly growth and inflation projections were marginally unchanged. The dot plot, however, showed a median forecast on one rate cut this year (from three in March) and four next year (up from three). While leaving the door open to an earlier cut if inflation keeps declining, the Fed appears willing to move cautiously given the uncertain inflation outlook and resilient economic conditions. The week ended with the prelim. US consumer sentiment reading which unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low, while the measure of buying conditions fell to its lowest level since December 2022, with consumer expectations also tumbling to the lowest reading this year. The 1-year inflation forecast stuck at 3.3%, while the 5-10 year inflation projection ticked-up to 3.1% in June.  

A positive week across US markets saw stocks strengthen, the S&P charged to new all-time highs, rising 1.58% last week. Meanwhile, USTs enjoyed a rally, the 10-year benchmark fell 21bps to 4.22%. Dollar suffered a wobble following the miss on the CPI prints, however, charged to fresh month highs at the end of the week; the DXY Index gained 0.63%. Oil was underpinned by geopolitical tensions; Brent closed the week 3.77% higher at $82.62pb. 

Elsewhere, political developments in France saw the nation’s markets come under pressure last week. The ECB stated it sees no cause for alarm despite some contagion of market turbulence, for example in Italy; we’ll be keeping a close eye this week. Regional sentiment was further dented when MSCI announced it will not, currently, add European Union bonds to its government bond indexes, denting EU efforts to attract a broader investor base for its debt. Despite some investors backing the inclusion of EU securities in sovereign indexes, which the bloc argues would lower its borrowing costs relative to individual member states, MSCI cited a “bifurcation of opinion” among investors on the matter. The index provider said it will re-evaluate the eligibility criteria for adding EU debt in the second quarter of 2025, leaving open the possibility of future reclassification from its current supranational issuer status, though the concept of treating the EU as a sovereign remains controversial given debates around joint debt issuance. 

Epic Investment Partner’s Key risks & Disclaimers:

EPIC Global Equity Fund (the “Fund”) is a sub-fund of EPIC Funds p.l.c. (the “Company”), which is an open-ended umbrella fund authorised in Ireland as a UCITS fund and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. This marketing material has been approved in the UK by EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, trading as EPIC Investment Partners, which is a limited liability partnership incorporated and registered in England and Wales under partnership OC306260 with its registered office at Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. EPIC Markets (UK) LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Distribution of this material and the offer of the Fund are specifically restricted in certain jurisdictions. In particular, but without limitation, neither this material nor shares in the Fund are available to US persons.

This document is for general information purposes only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. It is not a personal recommendation and it should not be regarded as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any shares in the Fund. This document represents the views of EPIC Investment Partners at the time of writing. It should not be construed as investment advice. Any person interested in investing in the Fund should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the Fund and should consult their own professional tax, accounting or other advisers as to the risks involved in making such an investment. Full details of the Fund’s investment objectives, investment policy and risks are set out in the Fund’s Prospectus and Supplement which, together with the Key Information Document (“KID”), are available on request and free of charge from Maples Fund Services (Ireland) Limited, 32 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2, Ireland and, in the UK, from EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. Any offering of the Fund is only made on the terms of the current Prospectus, Supplement and KID. A subscription in the Fund can only be made after the provision of the KIID and should be made solely upon the information contained in the Prospectus, Supplement and KID.

An investment in the Fund is not suitable for an investor who cannot sustain a loss on their investment. There is no guarantee of the Fund’s future performance and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of your investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the money you invested. The risks associated with making an investment in the Fund are described in the Prospectus and Supplement but investors should note, in particular, the following: 1) Foreign currency denominated investments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have a positive or an adverse effect on an investor’s returns. There is also a risk that currency hedging transactions for one share class may in extreme cases adversely affect the net asset value of the other share classes within the same sub-fund since there is no legal segregation between share classes; 2) The Fund is subject to the risk of the insolvency of its counterparties; and 3) Emerging market securities are subject to greater social, political, regulatory, and currency risks than developed market securities. This may impact the liquidity and value of such securities and, consequently, the value of the Fund.

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This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from EPIC Investment Partners. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

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