A fairly quiet start to the week in terms of data. Markets will monitor the US Conference Board leadings index prints. The US Richmond Fed manufacturing index follows on Tuesday. Eurozone consumer confidence and US existing home sales are due on Wednesday, and we have Alphabet, Tesla and IBM earnings reports. Prelim PMI figures across the eurozone, UK and US fall on Thursday, and we have US new home sales, initial jobless claims and the ECB rate decision where a hold is expected amid tariff uncertainty. Markets will look to ECB President Lagarde’s press conference for future guidance. Germany IFO business climate and US durable goods are due on Friday.
Mixed US CPI, flat PPI, stronger-than-expected retail sales figures, concerns about US and Japan’s fiscal outlook and tariff noise kept markets busy last week. On Friday the Uni. of Michigan sentiment and expectations rose above forecast. Interestingly, the US inflation projections cooled, to 4.4% on the 1-year and the 5-10 year fell to 3.6%.
In terms of markets, the yield on the 10-year UST closed flat over the week at 4.2%, while the S&P Index rose to new highs, up 0.59%. The DXY Index gained 0.64%. Brent Crude fell 1.53% to $69.28pb.
While the Trump-Powell saga unfolded, the central bank’s Daly said that the central bank should not hold fire for too long, suggesting two rates cuts this year are a possibility. Meanwhile, Kugler said rates should be held “for some time” amid tariff-induced inflation. So, clearly a divided Fed going into the FOMC meeting next week. Elsewhere, China’s economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, above forecasts and maintaining its “around 5%” annual target, largely driven by strong exports, boosted by pre-tariff orders and diversified trade with Southeast Asia and the EU, and impressive industrial output, particularly in high-tech manufacturing. Despite persistent disinflationary trends, industrial product futures prices are rebounding due to “anti-involution” campaigns and supportive policies, which may stabilise producer prices. High-tech and equipment manufacturing significantly contributed to industrial output growth. Service consumption is rapidly expanding, with efforts focused on improving the supply of high-quality services. The “Shopping in China” campaign boosted tourist spending, while a recent urban work conference signalled a shift from urban expansion to optimisation and renewal, focusing on renovations rather than large-scale, monetised real estate stimulus.
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