Market Updates

U.S. trade policy appears to be softening as supply chain constraints begin to bind, supporting expectations for greater stability over the next 6–12 months despite likely near-term market volatility.

Markets will be busy this week with key US and China data, major tech earnings, and central bank updates, while easing US-China trade tensions, cautious Fed signals, and downgraded global growth forecasts from the IMF continue to shape a volatile economic outlook.

U.S. trade policy is accelerating a broader structural shift driven by mega forces like geopolitical fragmentation, making long-term market expectations more reactive to short-term developments, with AI emerging as a key long-term return driver—especially in the U.S.

The U.S. administration’s temporary tariff pause and exemptions reflect sensitivity to financial risks and diplomacy, prompting a cautiously increased risk appetite, though growth and inflation concerns persist amid ongoing uncertainty.

A surprise weakening of the US dollar amid rising tariffs has sparked speculation of a policy shift toward devaluation—ironically positioning China, with its evolving economic strategy, as the potential long-term beneficiary.

Rising global trade tensions and extreme policy uncertainty have sparked a broad risk asset selloff, prompting a three-month tactical shift to reduce equity exposure and increase allocation to short-term U.S. Treasuries as a defensive move.

Markets face renewed volatility amid escalating trade tensions and reciprocal tariffs, with central bank commentary, inflation data, and major earnings in focus this week—while last week’s resilient U.S. jobs report was overshadowed by Trump’s tariff shock and its inflationary implications.

U.S. policy shifts are driving global uncertainty, prompting responses from Europe and Canada, but AI investment and potential deregulation could support economic growth, reinforcing BlackRock’s overweight stance on U.S. stocks over the next 6–12 months.

Markets focus on Trump’s global tariffs, Powell’s speech, and the US jobs report this week, while inflation readings from Germany and Italy, China’s PMI data, and the ECB’s policy signals will also be closely watched amid ongoing stagflation fears and tariff-driven market volatility.

Despite a U.S. equity pullback, BlackRock remain overweight U.S. stocks while seeing global opportunities, with Europe’s fiscal boost, Japan’s corporate reforms, and Latin America’s mega forces driving gains, though prolonged U.S. policy uncertainty could pose risks.