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Market Update by Liontrust – Q1 2020

Liontrust GF High Yield Bond Fund is manufactured by Liontrust Fund Partners LLP and represented in Malta by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

Quarter 1, 2020 – market review

The first few weeks of the year saw high yield bond prices creep higher until the pandemic turned the market on its head. March saw the global high yield market produce a return of -12.9% in euros, leading to -14.1% over the quarter. It looked as if returns were going to break the worst month on record (October 2008), but action from central banks and governments, globally, stoked a relief rally.

The US high yield market marginally outperformed its European counterpart. Meanwhile rating bands performed in the manner you would expect, with higher quality outperforming, yet still down double-digit percentages in the BB cohort. The worst-performing sector was energy, which fell over 30% in March.

The Liontrust GF High Yield Bond Fund (A1 accumulation class) returned -14.9% in euro terms in Q1 against -14.1% from the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index (EUR hedged).

At the end of March, the net underlying yield on the Fund was 6.38% (for classes A1, B1 and C1).

Image 2 Liontrust Q1 2020

Discrete data is not available for five full 12-month periods due to the launch date of the portfolio. *Source: Financial Express, to 31.03.20, A1, B1 and C1 share classes, total return, net of fees and interest reinvested.

Outlook

We are all faced with an extremely uncertain outlook. At times like this, I like to consider the resilience that high yield has shown in previous cycles. For example, our favoured sub-set of the market, excluding CCCs and energy, has a spread of 715 basis points (bps) as I type. Historically, when the market has pushed through 700bps, the return profile of a medium to long-term investor committing capital on that day has been excellent, as the chart below highlights.

 

Image 1 Liontrsut Q1 2020

As the economy deteriorates, defaults are clearly a risk to high yield returns. In early April, JPM published a note to clients indicating they expect the European high yield market to have 6% defaults as a base case for 2020. That would be a quicker impact than in 2008 when defaults did not peak until the following year but if we expect a shorter, sharper downturn this time, I would not quibble with that number too much.

If we take that 6% as a starting point, the US high yield market, with its high exposure to the domestic energy sector, could well be higher than that.

We are encouraged that of all the sub-investment grade debt that comes due between 2020-2024, only 4% is to be repaid in 2020 and 68% in the final two years (2023 and 2024). This provides a good degree of cushion against refinancing risk.

The next obvious risk is an inability to service interest payments and this is partially captured within credit ratings. Currently, 86% of our portfolio is in mid-B rated credit and higher: according to Moody’s in mid-February 2020, only 16% of companies rated B2 had weak interest cover and cashflow metrics and this proportion gradually drops as we move towards the higher rated parts of the market.

Of course, the economic impact is going to be huge in the near term and those company metrics will change rapidly. We are comforted, however, that the Fund does not have significant exposure to thematic and cyclical sectors such as energy, mining, leisure and retail. For example, the Fund has 0.4% in retail (petrol forecourt), around 2% in energy, 1% in mining and 0.5% directly in casinos/hotels/tourism.


Liontrust Key risks & Disclaimers:

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Do remember that the value of an investment and the income generated from them can fall as well as rise and is not
guaranteed, therefore, you may not get back the amount originally invested and potentially risk total loss of capital. The issue of units/shares in Liontrust Funds may be subject
to an initial charge, which will have an impact on the realisable value of the investment, particularly in the short term. Investments should always be considered as long term.

Investment in the GF High Yield Bond Fund involves foreign currencies and may be subject to fluctuations in value due to movements in exchange rates. The value of fixed income
securities will fall if the issuer is unable to repay its debt or has its credit rating reduced. Generally, the higher the perceived credit risk of the issuer, the higher the rate
of interest. Bond markets may be subject to reduced liquidity. The Fund may invest in emerging markets/soft currencies and in financial derivative instruments, both of which may
have the effect of increasing volatility.

Issued by Liontrust Fund Partners LLP (2 Savoy Court, London WC2R 0EZ), authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 518165) to undertake regulated
investment business.

This document should not be construed as advice for investment in any product or security mentioned, an offer to buy or sell units/shares of Funds mentioned, or a solicitation
to purchase securities in any company or investment product. Examples of stocks are provided for general information only to demonstrate our investment philosophy. It contains
information and analysis that is believed to be accurate at the time of publication, but is subject to change without notice. Whilst care has been taken in compiling the content
of this document, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Liontrust as to its accuracy or completeness, including for external sources (which may have been
used) which have not been verified. It should not be copied, faxed, reproduced, divulged or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Liontrust.
Always research your own investments and (if you are not a professional or a financial adviser) consult suitability with a regulated financial adviser before investing.


MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from Liontrust Fund Partners LLP. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information
inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information
purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available
in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding
the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at
the time of the initial purchase for an investment and may be deducted from the invested amount therefore lowering the size of your investment. Any income you get from this
investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The
performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest
should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Document (KIID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

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