Picture your Future. Save for it by earning 1.5% on a 1-year Term Deposit Account! Learn more.

BlackRock Commentary: What lies beyond the restart?

Jean Boivin, Head of BlackRock Investment Institute, together with Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist, Elga Bartsch, Head of Macro Research and Vivek Paul, Senior Portfolio Strategist, all part of the BlackRock Investment Institute, share their insights on global economy, markets and geopolitics. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.


BlackRock’s senior executives and portfolio managers gathered virtually at our midyear outlook forum at a critical juncture in markets – with a pro-risk consensus over the tactical horizon. Beyond the near-term restart, they expressed a wide range of views on topics including growth and inflation, and identified a few key long-term investment themes including the climate transition, China and policy.
Article Image 1 What lies beyond the restart 14-06

Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, Reuters with data from Haver Analytics, June 2021. Notes: The pink line represents the extrapolation of the five-year growth trend preceding the global financial crisis (GFC). The yellow area represents a range of assumptions for trend growth following the Covid shock. The orange line represents actual U.S. GDP up to the first quarter of 2021 and the median forecast from the second quarter of 2021 to the last quarter of 2022, based on the latest Reuters poll as of May 13, 2021. We plot the log of GDP so that the slope of the line indicates the trend growth rate.

 

The global economy and markets are at the most consequential moment since our outlook forums started a decade ago. The bounce back from the Covid shock has been remarkably swift, reflecting our view that this is a restart, not a usual business cycle recovery. This is in stark contrast to the global financial crisis (GFC) and the “lost decade” that followed. Median forecasts now point to a period of above-trend growth of the U.S. economy, according to the latest Reuters poll. See the chart above. This is unusual, as typically growth takes time to pick up to trend again after a downturn. The bigger question: What lies beyond? Views among forum participants differed on whether the restart is the start of a broader pickup in animal spirits, the acceleration of trends that boost potential growth, or a return to something more like a typical mid- or late-cycle. Many saw U.S. inflation exceeding the Fed’s target in the medium term – a big turnaround from the tepid inflation expectations of a year earlier. The BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) sees U.S. CPI inflation averaging just under 3% between 2025-2030, and believes this is still underpriced by markets.

Strong consensus emerged among forum participants on some long-term investment themes. These include the transition to a net-zero economy, an enduring policy revolution, opportunities in Chinese assets despite structural U.S.-China tensions, and the key role of technological innovation. Tech will be critical for solving structural problems such as ageing societies and the resulting decline of labor participation; it is also key to our sectoral views on incorporating the effect of climate change – and that of the “green” transition – in our long-term return assumptions. The net-zero transition requires huge investments, changes in business models and innovation. There is no roadmap for such a tectonic shift – one that we believe markets are underappreciating. The transition could create sustained demand for commodities such as copper and lithium that are critical for electrification, but may also exacerbate a near-term supply/demand imbalance in oil, spurring price volatility.

China is key to the net-zero transition. China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 and peak carbon emission by 2030. More broadly, we view China-related assets as core strategic holdings as we believe investors need exposures to China in an increasingly bi-polar U.S.-China world order.

We see our new nominal investment theme – that calls for a more muted response in interest rates to higher inflation than in the past – not only playing out but just getting started. We see central banks, notably the Fed, as likely leaning against sharp long-term yield rises. The upshot: We see a lower path of short-term interest rates compared with our previous expectation and current market pricing – and this has significant implications for our strategic views.

Our strong conviction on these long-term investment themes has helped inform our strategic views. These include a preference for assets that are likely to benefit from the climate transition, Chinese assets as core holdings, and a preference for inflation-linked bonds over nominal bonds. The direction of travel is clear, yet it is crucial to identify nearer-term opportunities along the path between now and then. Over the tactical horizon, we are pro-risk amid the broadening restart. The easy monetary policy and massive fiscal spending have triggered some concerns about asset price bubbles, but we see little evidence to date of systemic financial imbalances arising. We will reflect on the implications of the economic restart on asset classes and update our views in the upcoming midyear global outlook to be released on July 6.

Market Updates

Article Image 2 What lies beyond the restart 14-06

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv Datastream as of June 10, 2021. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point this year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in U.S. dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are, in descending order: spot Brent crude, MSCI Europe Index, MSCI USA Index, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, J.P. Morgan EMBI index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index, Refinitiv Datastream Italy 10-year benchmark government bond index, Refinitiv Datastream Germany 10-year benchmark government bond index and Refinitiv Datastream U.S. 10-year benchmark government bond index.

Market backdrop

U.S. consumer prices jumped in May and key drivers appear related to the activity restart. Stocks rallied to record highs and bond yields fell. Economic data have been erratic, and we expect more of the same as economies restart amid pent-up consumer demand and supply shortages. We advocate looking through near-term market volatility and remain pro-risk, predicated on our belief that the Fed faces a very high bar to change its easy monetary policy stance.

Week Ahead

  • June 15 –  U.S. retail sales and industrial production
  • June 16 – Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting; China retail sales
  • June 17 – U.S. Philly Fed business sentiment
  • June 18 – Bank of Japan policy decision

Markets will focus on the Fed’s policy meeting this week as investors watch for the central bank’s reaction to strong inflation prints in recent months. We see the volatility in near-term inflation data as a result of the unusual supply and demand dynamics triggered by the economic restart, and expect the Fed to reiterate the transitory nature of the inflation spike and to stand by its new policy framework.


BlackRock’s Key risks & Disclaimers:

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of June 14th, 2021 and may change. The information and opinions are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This material may contain ’forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.

The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation, and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets or smaller capital markets. 

Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL.


MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from  BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Document (KIID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

Share on facebook
Share on linkedin

Latest news articles

All News

Notes from the Trading Desk – Franklin Templeton

Last week, the United Kingdom took centre stage for all the wrong reasons. Following the controversial “fiscal statement” from the UK government on the prior Friday, financial markets took fright at the sweeping range of unfunded tax cuts and spending proposals, as many felt the plans lacked in detail and costing.

Experience better banking

The sooner you start managing your money, your way, using the best-in-class tools, the sooner you’ll see results. Sign up and open your account for free, within minutes.

Login

We strive to ensure a streamlined account opening process, via a structured and clear set of requirements and personalised assistance during the initial communication stages. If you are interested in opening a corporate account with MeDirect, please complete an Account Opening Information Questionnaire and send it to corporate@medirect.com.mt.

For a comprehensive list of documentation required to open a corporate account please contact us by email at corporate@medirect.com.mt or by phone on (+356) 2557 4444.