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Legg Mason Perspectives: The future of the office sector

By Harris Trifon, Portfolio Manager – Western Asset

 

COVID-19’s sudden impact on the market for office space could spark unanticipated changes longer-term.

The unprecedented closure of large swaths of the US economy related to the COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to an enormous amount of stress on tenants, property owners and lenders alike. While many market participants have focused primarily on the retail and hospitality sectors, an increasing amount of concern has been directed at the office sector. In our view, much of the concern goes beyond the near-term impact of tenants failing to pay rent during the quarantine period. Rather, it is largely centered on whether or not there will be a need for as much office space in the future and what changes will need to be made to ensure employees’ safety and comfort. In all likelihood, it will take years for these questions to be answered; however, it is not clear that those answers will be uniformly negative for office assets or for their debt and equity investors.

There are a number of factors that will determine the shape and trajectory of this critically important property type. Here we describe three of the factors that we believe will be the most significant in shaping the office of the future.
 

1. Work From Home

Beyond the financial impact related to the closure of most commercial properties in the US over the last two to three months, the migration of millions of Americans from traditional office settings to working from home (WFH) has had perhaps the most significant impact. In recent weeks, many of America’s largest financial and technology companies including Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon, Morgan Stanley, Capital One and Nationwide have announced plans to allow large numbers of employees to WFH for an extended period of time or even permanently. This crisis has proven that some jobs can be done from home, which has led many companies to reconsider their office needs.

We already saw the impact of this in the first quarter when office leasing activity fell by over 30% compared to the first quarter of 2019. We expect to see additional and more severe declines over the remainder of the year. Beyond that, the trend will depend on the economic recovery, which in turn is dependent on the spread of the virus and availability of therapeutics and a vaccine, as well as the success or failure of WFH. Assuming the economy recovers over the next year or two, our view is the WFH movement will not result in a large amount of office vacancies, as we believe employee collaboration and innovation are harder to achieve in a systematic WFH environment, but clearly the sector will continue to face challenges.
 

 

Exhibit 1: Office Leasing Activity Has Been on the Decline

 

Source: Jones Lang Lasalle. As of 31 Mar 20.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of an actual investment.

 

2. Changes to the Workplace

What and how many changes will be required to protect employees and their employers is an open question that many lessees and lessors are beginning to grapple with as the reopening phase begins. Some of the most obvious changes will be more frequent cleaning of common areas and workspaces, touchless elevator controls, doors and bathrooms, hand sanitizer stations, HVAC systems with better filtration capabilities, changes to building entries, modifications regarding the flow of people in corridors and of course more physical distancing. This last change could be the most impactful to the future viability of office space as a product. It also presents lessors with a counterintuitive challenge in the use of space. For more than a decade, the square footage (sf) per employee for American office workers has declined from 211 sf in 2009 to 194 sf by the end of 2017. In the age of social distancing, this long-standing trend is very likely to reverse, resulting in an increased need for office space per employee. We also expect to see more amenities offered and an increased use of break and communal space. The impact on each user, building and market will vary. But, in general we believe the net impact of these changes will make working from the office—not WFH—the more attractive option.
 

3. Changes in Locations

The concentration of large numbers of workers in central business districts might not be a trend of the past, but we expect to see a meaningful trend developing over the short and longer term to “spread out” workers. This new trend will have a negative impact on the highest profile cities and buildings and a positive impact on tier-2 cities and suburban offices. In recent years, there has been a flood of capital into gateway markets and many of the largest and highest profile office buildings have traded at historically high multiples relative to the net operating income generated. This emerging trend will cause large unrealized and eventually realized losses for equity investors and we expect the same for debt investors as well.

At Western Asset, we have had a cautious view regarding many of these office-related assets that have been financed through the securitization market. As a result, we expect our client portfolios to be well protected from the negative impact that decentralization will have on many “trophy” assets. While the future and permanency of WFH is impossible to predict in the present moment, we think any significant shifts of the workforce out of the traditional office setting will be more than offset by the additional space required during an upcoming economic expansion and for the office of the future.

 


Legg Mason Key risks and Disclaimers

Forecasts are inherently limited and should not be relied upon as indicators of actual or future performance.

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.

The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested, and can be affected by changes in interest rates, in exchange rates, general market conditions, political, social and economic developments and other variable factors. Investment involves risks including but not limited to, possible delays in payments and loss of income or capital. Neither Legg Mason nor any of its affiliates guarantees any rate of return or the return of capital invested.

Equity securities are subject to price fluctuation and possible loss of principal. Fixed-income securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks; and possible loss of principal. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls. International investments are subject to special risks including currency fluctuations, social, economic and political uncertainties, which could increase volatility. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. Commodities and currencies contain heightened risk that include market, political, regulatory, and natural conditions and may not be suitable for all investors.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that an investor cannot invest directly in an index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges.

The opinions and views expressed herein are not intended to be relied upon as a prediction or forecast of actual future events or performance, guarantee of future results, recommendations or advice. Statements made in this material are not intended as buy or sell recommendations of any securities. Forward-looking statements are subject to uncertainties that could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from the expectations expressed. This information has been prepared from sources believed reliable but the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. Information and opinions expressed by either Legg Mason or its affiliates are current as at the date indicated, are subject to change without notice, and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual investors.

The information in this material is confidential and proprietary and may not be used other than by the intended user. Neither Legg Mason or its affiliates or any of their officer or employee of Legg Mason accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this material or its contents. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or published without prior written permission from Legg Mason. Distribution of this material may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. Any persons coming into possession of this material should seek advice for details of, and observe such restrictions (if any).

 


MeDirect Disclaimers

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from Legg Mason Investments (Europe) Limited. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

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