Morningstar Insights: What’s the Difference Between Risk and Volatility?

Valerio Baselli discusses how investors are experiencing rough markets not seen in 11 years. Don’t obsess over short-term fluctuations; instead, focus on your financial goals.

Financial markets are going through one of the most complicated periods in recent history. Investors have been grappling with the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the energy crisis, the spike in inflation, and rising interest rates.

Red Across the Board

In 2022, the Morningstar Global Markets TR Index fell 10.4%, meanwhile the Morningstar Europe TR Index lost 17.7%, the Morningstar Canada Index is down 13.55% and the Morningstar Emerging Markets shed 13%. All international stock exchanges have suffered severe setbacks.

Bonds, traditionally considered a safe haven, have come out even more battered: the Morningstar Eurozone Core Bond Index, for instance, lost 15% of its value for the year-to-date. In the UK, the issue is pronounced, following Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.

For the first time since 1994, the waves of selloffs hit stocks and bonds at the same time, and the trusty 60/40 portfolio, a long time cornerstone of diversification, went through one of its worst periods ever.

This year, markets have also experienced increased two-way volatility in stocks, with sharp moves higher or lower (so far in 2022 the S&P 500 experienced 14 days with more than 2% moves, which is second only to 2020 in the last decade), which historically tend to signal that more volatility might be in store for stocks.

How to Keep Your Head

When faced with this stuff, the most important (and difficult) thing is to keep one’s nerve.

Knowing how to handle price fluctuations is at least as important as choosing the right investment. To be honest, most investors are unable to judge their risk tolerance objectively; they typically feel more resilient to risk in good times and suddenly become risk averse after periods of sustained losses such as those experienced recently.

Focusing on short-term movements inappropriately mixes the concepts of risk and volatility. Understanding the difference between the two, and focusing on the former and not the latter, is the key to making sure you achieve your financial goals.

What’s the Difference Between Risk and Volatility?

At first glance, it might seem the distinction between risk and volatility is purely academic and makes little difference to real-world investors. In fact, the two terms are often used almost interchangeably in the field of financial communication. It is also true that the term “risk” can refer to different concepts.

As investors, however, it is useful to create a mental distinction between volatility and risk. What are the key differences? Volatility indicates changes in the price of a security, portfolio or index, either upwards or downwards. Volatility, therefore, is not in itself bad news; it is theoretically possible (though unlikely) to own an investment that is very volatile but has so far only gone in one direction: up.

“If you are not going to sell, volatility is not a big problem and in fact can even be an ally, allowing you to buy additional shares in an investment that fits into your financial plan at a much lower price,” explains Christine Benz, Morningstar’s director of personal finance.

“The most intuitive definition of risk, on the other hand, is the possibility that you will not be able to meet your financial goals or honour your obligations, or that you will have to rethink your goals because circumstances have changed.”

From this point of view, risk should be the real concern for investors, not volatility. However, it is easy to see how the two terms merge. If you have a short time horizon and are in a volatile investment, what might simply be volatile for one investor can become downright risky for another. This is because there is a real risk you might have to sell and make a loss.

How to Cope with Risk and Volatility

So how can investors focus on risk while putting volatility aside?

The first step is to know that volatility is inevitable and if, you have a long enough time horizon, you will be able to use it to your advantage. The use of a dollar-cost averaging strategy can help to ensure that you can buy shares in a variety of market situations (however, it is important to be fully aware of the pros and cons of such a practice).

Traditionally, diversifying one’s investments across asset classes and investment styles can go a long way towards making your portfolio less volatile and your (financial!) life easier.

“Another good practice is to identify real risks: namely, to identify your financial goals and the possibility of not achieving them,” Benz says.

“For most of us, a comfortable retirement is a key goal. For those with children, saving for their education or their first home might be a goal. By identifying goals and risks one by one, you can prioritise and anticipate what you would do if you don’t achieve them.”

Finally, it is always a good idea to keep some of your savings in cash. In extremely uncertain times like the current one, the cash part of our portfolio could save you from having to liquidate investments that are performing badly to meet important expenses or to repay a possible debt. Liquidity can also give the possibility, for those who feel up to it, to enter the market by taking advantage of sharp falls in order to buy assets at a discount.


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BlackRock Commentary: Don’t be tempted by the old playbook

Jean Boivin – Head of BlackRock investment institute, together with Alex Brazier – Deputy Head, Nicholas Fawcett, Macro Researchist and Tara Sharma, Investment Strategist all forming part of the BlackRock Investment Institute, share their insights on global economy, markets and geopolitics. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.

Key Points

No rate cuts near: Recession is foretold, in our view, as central banks crush demand to bring down inflation. We think markets are wrong to expect them to later come to the rescue.

Market backdrop: U.S. stocks fell and the Treasury yield curve inverted its most since the early 1980s. We see recent moves as reflecting hopes for the old recession playbook.

Week ahead: Central banks are expected to slow the pace of hikes this week even if they stay historically large. We think rates are going to remain high once policy rates peak.

Major central banks will hike rates again this week: Getting inflation down means they need to crush demand, making recession foretold. We expect central banks to keep rates high as recession unfolds – not save the day as in the past. Yet Treasury yields have slid as the market expects Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the yield curve inverting more. We think that incorrectly reflects hopes for an old recession playbook and stay underweight developed market stocks and long-term bonds.

Old playbook expectations

We think markets are pricing in rate cuts starting in mid-2023 (the dark orange line in the chart) because they think the Federal Reserve will ride to the rescue when recession hits – the old playbook. That view has made U.S. yield curves the most inverted since the Fed’s last rapid hiking cycle in the 1980s, with five-year Treasury yields falling more than two- and 10-year yields over the past month. That’s boosted stocks. We see core inflation falling further next year from current levels but think central banks won’t be getting it back to 2% targets. Doing so would require an even deeper recession, in our view, and we see them stopping short of such an outcome as the damage from policy overtightening becomes clearer. So we see central banks living with persistently above-target inflation – and they won’t be able to cut rates as quickly as markets expect, in our view.

We’re starting to see recessions developing. Fed hikes have caused U.S. housing sales to slump on surging mortgage rates while businesses cut investment plans. U.S. households have dipped into excess savings built up during the pandemic to fund spending: The U.S. savings rate hit a 17-year low in October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. We estimate U.S. consumers could deplete their accumulated savings next year. We see spending slowing, worsening an already contracting economy, in our view. In Europe, we see higher rates adding to economic pain from the energy shock.

Stuck on the old playbook

We expect inflation to fall significantly from its current highs as energy prices stabilize and goods inflation falls due to easing supply bottlenecks. Yet pushing inflation down to target would entail even deeper recessions, in our view. A case in point: Harder-to-solve constraints – like a labor shortage as workforces age – are driving the Fed’s inflation headache. That means the U.S. economy can’t sustain current activity levels without creating inflation pressure. We think the Fed would have to close the gap soon between where the economy is operating and where it can comfortably operate given these constraints. That’s why we don’t see central banks reversing course by cutting rates as recession plays out. They’re now creating recessions, not riding to the rescue as they did in the past.

The U.S. equity rally and yield curve inversion show that markets are clinging to central banks’ old recession playbook. Market hopes of easing have supported the equity rally despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s message that rates may stay higher for longer. We think stocks could fall again if markets stop expecting policy easing. The gap between market expectations and the Fed’s intentions will start to close over time, in our view. We see long-term yields surging as investors demand more term premium, or compensation for the risk of holding long-term bonds, amid persistently above-target and more volatile inflation, historically high rates, record debt levels and the risk of financial accidents. The UK gilt selloff gave a glimpse of the return of bond vigilantes. Any change to the Bank of Japan’s yield curve control policy could add to a return of term premium.

Our bottom line

We stick with our conviction that nominal government bonds won’t help diversify portfolios right now and stay underweight long-term government bonds. We look to the short end, investment grade credit and U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities for income. We’re underweight DM stocks because we think markets will price out rate cuts and earnings don’t reflect the recession foretold. We expect to turn more positive on equities sometime in 2023, after gauging how markets are pricing the economic damage we see ahead and market risk sentiment. That’s our new investment playbook..

Market backdrop

Stocks fell 3% last week and Treasury yields were largely unchanged even as the yield curve inverted to its deepest levels since the 1980s. We think market expectations for rate cuts had boosted stocks, and earnings don’t yet reflect the recession we expect. Lower long-term yields reflect that markets are clinging to the old playbook – where central banks counter recessions and long-term bonds work as portfolio ballast – and not seeing the risks of term premium returning, in our view.

Three major central bank policy decisions anchor the week. We think the Fed will keep rates higher for longer than the market is pricing. We see the ECB and BoE continuing to hike aggressively. We’ll also be watching to see if central banks’ quarterly forecasts are acknowledging the economic damage needed to bring inflation down to target.

Week Ahead

Dec. 13: U.S. CPI

Dec. 14: U.S. Fed policy decision; UK CPI

Dec. 15: European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) policy decisions


BlackRock’s Key risks & Disclaimers:

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of 5th December, 2022 and may change. The information and opinions are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This material may contain ’forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.

The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation, and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets or smaller capital markets.

Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL.


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The financial instruments discussed in the document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

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