Market Update by Liontrust – Q2 2024

Liontrust GF High Yield Bond Fund is manufactured by Liontrust Fund Partners LLP and represented in Malta by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

Market review

The global high yield market returned 1.5% (US dollar terms) in the second quarter of 2024. The US high yield market produced a return of 1.1% while in Europe the market returned 1.9% during the period. The returns across the different rating bands in US and Europe were broadly similar, although European CCCs produced an impressive return of 3.9%, while US CCCs were fairly anaemic at 0.2%.

Fund performance

With its index matching returns in the quarter, the main positive contributors in the Fund included Ceramtec, a ceramic products manufacturer, and Grifols, a blood plasma producer. Both are CCC rated, euro denominated bonds and therefore perhaps tapping into the broader them of euro CCC outperformance.

Grifols was a topical bond in Q1 for its underperformance, but during Q2 it made progress in the refinancing of its capital structure, including asset sales. We sold out of the position towards the end of the quarter after the bond was downgraded to Caa2. The positive contribution of this bond was dimmed a little by this rating action, but the general view held by Moody’s is the company now has a large amount of strategy execution risk in order to deliver its balance sheet. We agree with this assessment and felt selling the bond at a price in the low 80s was prudent whilst we wait for more evidence that, operationally and financially, the company is on the right path. Another company, B-rated Saga Plc, contributed positively as it made progress in refinancing its bonds, when previously the market had shown a little scepticism – undue in our eyes – that its 2024 bond would be refinanced.

Less positively, an example of poor stock-picking in the quarter was in another CCC-rated euro-denominated bond, Kloeckner Pentaplast. This was a very small position size due to its relatively precarious position versus a 2026 maturity wall. We decided to exit this small position at a price close to 50 as, effectively, we lost conviction that par is the likely outcome for this bond. During the quarter (and indeed the year to date), the holding cost the fund only a few basis points, and the cost to the fund over the entire holding period was less than 10bps, due in large part to some good trading, sensible position sizing and, of course, carry.

No particular sector stands as out as driving marked relative returns during the quarter. Real estate felt somewhat quiet, certainly relative to recent quarters, though still made the Fund a relative return of close to 20bps. Aroundtown, added to the Fund in January, and long-term holding CPI Property were the main contributors, although CPI’s contribution would have been greater had it not been downgraded to sub-investment grade during the period. We took the opportunity to top up its senior unsecured bonds in the aftermath of this downgrade.

Trade activity

The Fund invested in a new holding during the quarter called Brightline East. This is an extremely unique company in the high yield market, where it has built ‘higher speed’ rail in Florida and is now going through the ramp-up phase whilst Floridian travellers increase their use of this new service. It has a coupon of 11%; we bought it below par and the bond structure comes with a couple of years of debt service reserves whilst ridership grows. This is a different proposition to what we have in the portfolio, is highly idiosyncratic and we believe paying well for what are clear risks.

Elsewhere we participated in a new issue by an auto parts company called Mahle. This German company is owned by a foundation, which extracts only very modest dividends for charitable use. We think it is managed with a long-term outlook and has a balance sheet to cope with the natural cyclicality in the autos market.

Outlook

Sticky inflation continues to drive volatility in rates markets, whilst credit markets remain extremely resilient. Whilst unemployment remains low, credit conditions are fairly benign, so we do understand why High Yield has generally been stable. Yet the longer rates remain elevated, the risk of economic slowdown further down the line increases. In this context, we have been happy to gradually reduce risk in the portfolio. We believe we are prudently positioned for what we believe to be a somewhat precarious macro back-drop, though still harvesting the now attractive income being generated by the asset class.

The Fund continues to invest in bonds based on strong corporate fundamentals and has a bias towards high quality defensive credits, with minimal exposure to cyclical credits. We believe our defensive approach stands us in good shape to perform if and when default risk is the major driver of the market, rather than interest rates. The Fund is currently offering yield of around 9.1% for sterling investors (and around 7.5% for euro investors), which we view as an attractive entry point.

 


Liontrust Key risks & Disclaimers:

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Do remember that the value of an investment and the income generated from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed, therefore, you may not get back the amount originally invested and potentially risk total loss of capital.

The issue of units/shares in Liontrust Funds may be subject to an initial charge, which will have an impact on the realisable value of the investment, particularly in the short term. Investments should always be considered as long term.

Investment in the GF High Yield Bond Fund involves foreign currencies and may be subject to fluctuations in value due to movements in exchange rates. The value of fixed income securities will fall if the issuer is unable to repay its debt or has its credit rating reduced. Generally, the higher the perceived credit risk of the issuer, the higher the rate of interest. Bond markets may be subject to reduced liquidity. The Fund may invest in emerging markets/soft currencies and in financial derivative instruments, both of which may have the effect of increasing volatility. The Fund may invest in derivatives. The use of derivatives may create leverage or gearing. A relatively small movement in the value of a derivative’s underlying investment may have a larger impact, positive or negative, on the value of a fund than if the underlying investment was held instead.

Issued by Liontrust Fund Partners LLP (2 Savoy Court, London WC2R 0EZ), authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 518165) to undertake regulated investment business.

This document should not be construed as advice for investment in any product or security mentioned, an offer to buy or sell units/shares of Funds mentioned, or a solicitation to purchase securities in any company or investment product. Examples of stocks are provided for general information only to demonstrate our investment philosophy. It contains information and analysis that is believed to be accurate at the time of publication, but is subject to change without notice. Whilst care has been taken in compiling the content of this document, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Liontrust as to its accuracy or completeness, including for external sources (which may have been used) which have not been verified. It should not be copied, faxed, reproduced, divulged or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Liontrust. Always research your own investments and (if you are not a professional or a financial adviser) consult suitability with a regulated financial adviser before investing.


MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from Liontrust Fund Partners LLP. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instrument discussed in the document is intended for retail clients however, it may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Information Document (KID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

Epic Investment Partners Views: The Week Ahead

This week’s economic calendar reveals a somewhat subdued landscape for key data releases in Europe, with limited market-moving potential. However, a few notable indicators are worth commenting on. In Spain, June’s trade deficit showed a significant improvement, shrinking to -€713 million due to a sharp decline in imports. On Tuesday, the Eurozone’s Current Account for June is anticipated, and the forecast of €36.7 billion highlights the EU’s competitive trade position, even though disparities remain among member states. In the UK earlier today, Rightmove reported UK August house prices fell 1.5% m/m, +0.8% y/y with London house prices -2.1% m/m, +0.7% y/y. 

Looking ahead, the manufacturing and services sectors appear to be holding their ground, as preliminary readings for the S&P Global UK PMIs for August are expected to show modest expansion. Though consumer confidence remains relatively low, there are hints of gradual improvement, and we should have that confirmed on Friday. 

However, the spotlight remains on the United States. Throughout the week, crucial labour market, housing market, and manufacturing data will be released, alongside the FOMC minutes, which could offer valuable insights into the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. The Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator, due Thursday, will be closely monitored for signs of a potential recession although the current reading suggests otherwise.  

Yet, all these developments are likely to be overshadowed by the much-anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium. This annual gathering of central bankers, economists, and financial leaders provides a platform for in-depth discussions and presentations on critical economic issues. The symposium’s theme, “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy,” highlights the ongoing reassessment of central banks’ tools and their impact on the economy. 

As the world grapples with lingering inflation concerns and the potential for rate cuts, market participants will keenly listen for any signals from policymakers, particularly Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, about the future direction of monetary policy. 

As Mohamed El-Erian articulates in his Bloomberg column, this year’s Jackson Hole Symposium holds particular significance due to the economic fluidity and financial volatility experienced in the US and its global ramifications. The erosion of traditional anchors of stability, like predictable growth and effective policy guidance, has amplified uncertainty. El-Erian emphasises that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a “golden opportunity” to regain control of the narrative by providing clarity on the economy’s current state, the desired policy destination, and the path to get there. A clearer understanding of the new equilibrium policy rate and the practical implications of a “sustainable 2%” inflation target is crucial. 

Unlike the European data releases, comments from Powell have the potential to be market-moving. In essence, Jackson Hole holds the potential to either calm or further unsettle the markets. Powell’s challenge is to articulate a clear policy path that restores confidence and stability, addressing the current climate of uncertainty and the Fed’s role in shaping a more predictable economic future.  


Epic Investment Partner’s Key risks & Disclaimers:

EPIC Global Equity Fund (the “Fund”) is a sub-fund of EPIC Funds p.l.c. (the “Company”), which is an open-ended umbrella fund authorised in Ireland as a UCITS fund and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. This marketing material has been approved in the UK by EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, trading as EPIC Investment Partners, which is a limited liability partnership incorporated and registered in England and Wales under partnership OC306260 with its registered office at Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. EPIC Markets (UK) LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Distribution of this material and the offer of the Fund are specifically restricted in certain jurisdictions. In particular, but without limitation, neither this material nor shares in the Fund are available to US persons.

This document is for general information purposes only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. It is not a personal recommendation and it should not be regarded as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any shares in the Fund. This document represents the views of EPIC Investment Partners at the time of writing. It should not be construed as investment advice. Any person interested in investing in the Fund should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the Fund and should consult their own professional tax, accounting or other advisers as to the risks involved in making such an investment. Full details of the Fund’s investment objectives, investment policy and risks are set out in the Fund’s Prospectus and Supplement which, together with the Key Information Document (“KID”), are available on request and free of charge from Maples Fund Services (Ireland) Limited, 32 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2, Ireland and, in the UK, from EPIC Markets (UK) LLP, Audrey House, 16-20 Ely Place, London EC1N 6SN. Any offering of the Fund is only made on the terms of the current Prospectus, Supplement and KID. A subscription in the Fund can only be made after the provision of the KIID and should be made solely upon the information contained in the Prospectus, Supplement and KID.

An investment in the Fund is not suitable for an investor who cannot sustain a loss on their investment. There is no guarantee of the Fund’s future performance and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of your investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the money you invested. The risks associated with making an investment in the Fund are described in the Prospectus and Supplement but investors should note, in particular, the following: 1) Foreign currency denominated investments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have a positive or an adverse effect on an investor’s returns. There is also a risk that currency hedging transactions for one share class may in extreme cases adversely affect the net asset value of the other share classes within the same sub-fund since there is no legal segregation between share classes; 2) The Fund is subject to the risk of the insolvency of its counterparties; and 3) Emerging market securities are subject to greater social, political, regulatory, and currency risks than developed market securities. This may impact the liquidity and value of such securities and, consequently, the value of the Fund.


MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from EPIC Investment Partners. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document is intended for retail clients however, it may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Information Document (KID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

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