BlackRock sees little chance of a perfect economic scenario of low inflation and growth humming along. Last week’s market rout shows investors are adjusting to this reality. We upgrade investment grade (IG) credit and European government bonds to neutral as we see opportunities there.
On Thursday 12th May 2022, MeDirect will be holding its fourteenth edition of medirectalk focusing on the current Geopolitical Tensions and what the latest developments could indicate for global economies and markets in general. We will also discuss energy price rises, inflation outlook and central banks’ actions with a particular focus on the global high yield bond market.
Last week saw some extreme moves in equity markets as investors digested several central bank announcements, most notably the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on Wednesday. In Ukraine, the Russian advance in the east made marginal gains, and with no mention of peace talks anymore, a long, drawn-out campaign into the summer seems probable. The impact of this on commodity and food prices is clear.
U.S. wages are growing at the fastest clip since the 1980s. Is this the start of a “wage-price spiral” – a vicious cycle of companies funding higher pay by raising prices, causing employees to ask for even higher wages? We don’t think so. In reality, we find companies are paying less in labor costs per unit of output than before the pandemic thanks to higher productivity and prices. We believe wages can rise further without adding to inflation – and help normalize the labor market.
Franklin Mutual Series’ Katrina Dudley sees President Emmanuel Macron’s re-election as a positive for the French economy and regional equity markets over the longer term.
Inflation and hawkish central bank talk have spooked investors and led to bond losses not seen since the 1980s in developed markets (DMs). EM debt has also suffered, even ahead of the stress test of higher DM policy rates. The good news: Many EM central banks were early in raising rates to try to rein in inflation.
Corporate earnings should continue to dominate attention in the United States and Europe this week, with a significant number of companies reporting. Last week Fedspeak was a market driver, but as we enter the blackout period ahead of the 4 May FOMC meeting, it will be quieter on this front.
First quarter of 2022 review of the High Yield Market & the Liontrust High Yield Bond Fund & outlook for the High Yield Market in general.
In this article, Blue Whale discusses the fact that global growth is not matching inflation rates (a key characteristic of stagflation) and therefore why it is important to look for those companies that are able to benefit from structural changes in the global economy that are not reliant on a buoyant macro-outlook.
Equity markets year-to-date have been marked by volatility. In the past few weeks, markets have partially rebounded, and investors are wondering what comes next.
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